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Downloads — The New Climate Economy Report 2015
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NCE 2014

Better Growth

Better Climate

A new pathway for growth., cities., finance., land use., energy., innovation., economic policy., global action.

Countries at all income levels have the opportunity to build lasting economic growth and at the same time reduce the immense risk of climate change. But action is needed now.

The Global Commission, advised by some of the world’s leading economists, sets out a ten point Global Action Plan for governments and businesses to secure better growth in a low-carbon economy.

Chapter one

Overview

The Challenge

We live in a moment of great opportunity, and great risk.

The opportunity is to harness the expanding capacities of human intelligence and technological progress to improve the lives of the majority of the world’s people. Over the last quarter of a century, economic growth, new technologies, and global patterns of production and trade have transformed our economies and societies. In developing countries, nearly 500 million people have risen out of poverty just in the last decade – the fastest pace of poverty reduction for which we have data. 1 But still 2.4 billion live on less than US$2 a day, and urbanisation, rising consumption and population growth have put immense pressure on natural resources.

The next 10–15 years could be an era of great progress and growth. 2 In this period we have the technological, financial and human resources to raise living standards across the world. Good policies that support investment and innovation can further reduce poverty and hunger, make fast-growing cities economically vibrant and socially inclusive, and restore and protect the world’s natural environments.

Chapter two

Cities

Engines of national and global growth

Cities are crucial to both economic growth and climate action. Urban areas are home to half the world’s population, but generate around 80% of global economic output, 76 and around 70% of global energy use and energy-related GHG emissions. 77 Over the next two decades, nearly all of the world’s net population growth is expected to occur in urban areas, with about 1.4 million people – close to the population of Stockholm – added each week. 78 By 2050, the urban population will increase by at least 2.5 billion, reaching two-thirds of the global population. 79

The stakes for growth, quality of life and carbon emissions could not be higher. The structures we build now, including roads and buildings, could last for a century or more, setting the trajectory for greenhouse gas emissions at a critical time for reining these in.

Chapter three

Land Use

Protecting food, forests, and people

Rapid global population growth, urbanisation, rising incomes and resource constraints are putting enormous pressure on land and water resources used by agriculture and forests, which are crucial to food security and livelihoods. Roughly a quarter of the world’s agricultural land is severely degraded, 99 and forests continue to be cleared for timber and charcoal, and to use the land for crops and pasture. 100 Key ecosystem services are being compromised, and the natural resource base is becoming less productive. At the same time, climate change is posing enormous challenges, increasing both flood and drought risk in many places, and altering hydrological systems and seasonal weather patterns.

Chapter four

Energy

Better energy, better climate

We are in a period of unprecedented expansion of energy demand. Global energy use has grown by more than 50% since 1990, 133 and must keep growing to support continued development. As much as a quarter of today’s energy demand was created in just the last decade, and since 2000, all the net growth has occurred in non-OECD countries, more than half of it in China alone. 134 Past projections often failed to anticipate these dramatic shifts, which nonetheless have affected the energy prospects of nearly all countries. The future is now even more uncertain, as projections show anything from a 20% to 35% expansion of global energy demand over the next 15 years. 135

A major wave of investment will be required to meet this demand: around US$45 trillion will be required in 2015–2030 for key categories of energy infrastructure. 136 How that money is spent is critically important: it can help build robust, flexible energy systems that will serve countries well for decades to come, or it can lock in an energy infrastructure that exposes countries to future market volatility, air pollution, and other environmental and social stresses. Given that energy production and use already accounts for two-thirds of global GHG emissions, 137 and those emissions continue to rise, a great deal is at stake for the climate as well.

Chapter five

Economics of Change

A framework for growth and change

The world is changing rapidly: the share of output from emerging markets and developing economies is rising sharply; the global population is growing and moving to rapidly expanding cities; energy systems are being built and rebuilt. At the same time, the risks of dangerous climate change are increasing.

There is a perception that there is a trade-off in the short- to medium term between economic growth and climate action, but this is due largely to a misconception (built into many model-based assessments) that economies are static, unchanging and perfectly efficient. Any reform or policy which forces an economy to deviate from this counterfactual incurs a trade-off or cost, so any climate policy is often found to impose large short- and medium-term costs.

In reality, however, there are a number of reform opportunities that can reduce market failures and rigidities that lead to the inefficient allocation of resources, hold back growth and generate excess greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, once the multiple benefits of measures to reduce GHG emissions are taken into consideration, such as the potential health gains from better local air quality, many of the perceived net costs can be reduced or eliminated.

Chapter six

Finance

Financing a low-carbon future

Transitioning from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy will require significant investment. Businesses, land owners, farmers and households will need to invest to improve efficiency; energy producers will need to switch to low-carbon generation. Governments will need to expand and enhance infrastructure productivity, and also seek to influence the direction of private finance through regulation, incentives, co-investment, risk-sharing instruments and other policy measures.

Much of the needed investment in low-carbon infrastructure can be handled through existing structures and mechanisms, with the help of effective policy, regulation and market signals. But for some investments – most notably a low-carbon transition in the power sector – creating efficient finance structures and attracting finance is more challenging and may require dedicated policy.

Chapter seven

Innovation

Transformation through innovation

Innovation is central to economic growth – long-term gains in productivity and new product development are determined by trends in innovation. Innovation also makes it possible to continue growing our economies in a world of finite resources. The importance of innovation is a recurring theme throughout this report; it is essential to transforming global energy systems, agriculture and cities. It also depends on and is shaped by factors discussed in the report, from investment strategies, to effective regulation of markets, to climate policy.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has projected that if current trends continue, as the global population grows from 7 billion in 2010 to more than 9 billion in 2050, per capita consumption will more than triple, from about US$6,600 to US$19,700 per year, and global GDP will nearly quadruple, requiring 80% more energy. 185 Sustaining growth at that scale will only be possible with radically new business models, products and means of production.

Chapter eight

International Cooperation

A better climate through cooperation

Globalisation has been a major driver of both low- and high-carbon growth over the last 25 years. International trade and investment have enabled a huge expansion of global production, raising greenhouse gas emissions, but they have also helped advance the low-carbon economy. The increasingly global integration of supply chains for products such as solar and wind power components, for example, has helped dramatically reduce their costs. 204

The low-carbon economy is now a global phenomenon. International trade in environmental goods and services totals nearly US$1 trillion per year, or around 5% of all trade. 205 Trade in low-carbon and energy-efficient technologies alone is expected to reach US$2.2 trillion by 2020, a tripling of current levels. 206 Two-fifths of that market is expected to be in emerging and developing economies, 207 and the suppliers come from all over the world. In just the solar power sector, China and the US trade around US$6.5 billion worth of goods each year. 208

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  1. Estimates based on population and poverty data (defined as living under US$2 per day, adjusted for purchasing power parity) for low- and middle-income countries in: The World Bank, 2014. World Development Indicators 2014LINK

    The number of people living under US$2 in low- and middle-income countries in 1999 was 2.9 billion. From 1990 to 1999, the absolute number of people in poverty increased by 87 million. See also: World Bank, 2014. Poverty Overview. LINK [Last updated 7 April 2014.]

  2. This period encompasses what many economic decision-makers would describe as the short (0–5 years) and medium (5–15 year) terms. These time frames have been used in this report. The importance of the next 15 years for growth and climate change are discussed later.

  3. Low-income countries’ growth, while substantial, has lagged that of middle-income countries. In 1990–2012, low-income countries’ GDP grew by 156%, while middle-income countries’ grew by 215%. Low-income countries’ share of the global economy only grew from 1.1% to 1.4% in 1990–2012, while middle-income countries’ share rose from 26.8% to 41.9%. See: The World Bank, 2014, World Development Indicators 2014. Data cited are for GDP (constant 2005 international $ PPP), available in the 11 April 2014 release of the WDI (but not on the web).

  4. Agénor, P. R., Canuto, O. and Jelenic, M., 2012. Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps. Economic Premise, No. 98. The World Bank, Washington, DC. LINK

  5. World Health Organization (WHO), 2014. Burden of Disease from Ambient Air Pollution for 2012. Geneva. LINK

  6. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2014. World Economic Outlook 2014: Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven. Washington, DC. LINK

  7. IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  8. IPCC, 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M.M.B. Tignor, S.K. Allen, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

    Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  9. The IPCC estimates that the global average temperature will likely be 0.3–0.7°C higher in 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005. See: IPCC, 2013. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group I).

  10. IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C.B. Field, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastandrea, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  11. IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group II).

  12. See: Melillo, J. M., Richmond, T. C. and Yohe, G. W., eds., 2014. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. US Global Change Research Program. LINK

    Also: Gordon, K., 2014. Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States. The Risky Business Project. LINK

  13. Of four representative concentration pathways analysed by the IPCC, only RCP 2.6, which requires global emissions to peak no later than 2020 and become net negative by 2090, is associated with a 66% or better chance of keeping warming below 2°C. See IPCC, 2013, Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group I), and: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., et al., 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, 109(1-2). 5–31. DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z. (See Figure 6.)

  14. IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group III).

  15. Applying the GDP growth projections of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – 3.4% to 2018 and 3.3% for the remaining years – results in 69% cumulative growth. See: OECD, 2012. Medium and Long-Term Scenarios for Global Growth and Imbalances. OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2012, Issue 1. Paris. LINK

    A lower 2.5% annual growth rate would result in the economy being 48% bigger in 2030 than in 2014.

  16. Climate Policy Initiative analysis for the New Climate Economy project, based on data from:

    International Energy Agency (IEA), 2012. Energy Technology Perspectives: How to Secure a Clean Energy Future. Paris. LINK

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2012. Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030. Paris. LINK

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2006. Infrastructure to 2030. Paris. LINK

  17. See, e.g.: The World Bank, 2012. Inclusive Green Growth: The Pathway to Sustainable Development. Washington, DC. LINK

    United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2011. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication. Nairobi, Kenya. LINK

    Also see extensive work on green growth by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): LINK and by the World Economic Forum: LINK

    The Green Growth Knowledge Platform, established jointly in January 2012 by the Global Green Growth Institute, the OECD, UNEP and the World Bank, lists a rich and diverse collection: LINK

    The Nordic Council of Ministers has an extensive green growth library as well, and a magazine, Green Growth the Nordic Way; all are available at: LINK

  18. The estimate is for low-carbon electricity in particular. See: Climate Policy Initiative (CPI), 2014. Roadmap to a Low Carbon Electricity System in the U.S. and Europe. San Francisco, CA, US. LINK

  19. See: McCrone, A., Usher, E., Sonntag-O’Brien, V., Moslener, U. and Grüning, C., eds., 2014. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2014. Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance, United Nations Environment Programme, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. LINK

  20. United Nations (UN), 2014. World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 revision. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. LINKThe urban population in 2014 is estimated at 3.9 billion; in 2030 it is projected to be 5.1 billion. For detailed data, see: LINK

  21. Seto, K.C. and Dhakal, S., 2014. Chapter 12: Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  22. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that in 2010, urban areas accounted for 67–76% of global energy use and 71–76% of global CO2 emissions from final energy use. See: Seto andDhakal, 2014. Chapter 12: Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning.

  23. IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINKThe IPCC reports net total anthropogenic GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in 2010 as 10–12 Gt CO2e, or 24% of all GHG emissions in 2010. The AFOLU chapter further specifies that GHG emissions from agriculture in 2000–2009 were 5.0–5.8 Gt CO2e per year. See: Smith, P. and Bustamante, M., 2014. Chapter 11: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  24. Total calories produced must increase by 70% from 2006 levels, per: Searchinger, T., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Lipinski, B., Waite, R., Winterbottom, R., Dinshaw, A. and Heimlich, R., 2013. Creating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Sustainably Feed More than 9 Billion People by 2050. World Resources Report 2013-14: Interim Findings. World Resources Institute, the World Bank, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Washington, DC. LINK

  25. A further 8% of agricultural land is moderately degraded, and the amount is increasing. See: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2011. The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW) – Managing Systems at Risk. Rome. LINKSee also work by partners of the Economics of Land Degradation: A Global Initiative for Sustainable Land Management, launched in 2013: LINK

  26. This figure is the gross amount of forest converted. When adding in reported reforestation and afforestation, the net figure is 5.2 million ha. See: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2010. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010. Rome. LINK

  27. For energy-related emissions outside direct industry emissions, see all sectors except AFOLU and waste in Figure TS.3a in: IPCC, 2014. Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINKFor direct energy-related emissions in industry, see Table 10.2 of Fischedick, M. and Roy, J., 2014. Chapter 10: Industry. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  28. This range is based on a New Climate Economy staff review of recent projections, including:19% in the New Policies Scenario and 25% in the Current Policiesscenario in: International Energy Agency (IEA), 2013. World Energy Outlook 2013. Paris. LINK26% in the 6DS scenario in: IEA, 2012. Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Pathways to a Clean Energy System. Paris. LINK27% estimate in: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2013. International Energy Outlook. DOE/EIA-0484(2013). Washington, DC. LINK29–33% range provided in baselines developed for: GEA, 2012. Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, 2012. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. LINK

  29. The World Bank, n.d. Global Economic Monitor (GEM) Commodities.

  30. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2011. Energy for All: Financing Access for the Poor. Special early excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2011. First presented at the Energy For All Conference in Oslo, Norway, October 2011. LINK

  31. See, e.g.: European Climate Foundation (ECF), 2014. Europe’s Low-carbon Transition: Understanding the Challenges and Opportunities for the Chemical Sector. Brussels. LINK

  32.  Dechezleprêtre, A., Martin, R. and Mohnen, M., 2013. Knowledge Spillovers from Clean and Dirty Technologies: A Patent Citation Analysis. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 151 and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 135. London. LINK

  33. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), 2013. Decarbonisation and the Economy: An empirical analysis of the economic impact of energy and climate change policies in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, UK and The Netherlands. LINK

  34. See: Brahmbhatt, M., Dawkins, E., Liu, J. and Usmani, F., 2014 (forthcoming). Decoupling Carbon Emissions from Economic Growth: A Review of International Trends. New Climate Economy contributing paper. World Resources Institute, Stockholm Environment Institute and World Bank. LINK

    Also: Brinkley, C., 2014. Decoupled: successful planning policies in countries that have reduced per capita greenhouse gas emissions with continued economic growth. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, advance online publication. DOI:10.1068/c12202.

  35. Climate Policy Initiative analysis for the New Climate Economy project, based on data from: IEA, 2012, Energy Technology Perspectives; OECD, 2012, Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030; and OECD, 2006, Infrastructure to 2030. Low-carbon infrastructure includes some investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS), as projected by the IEA.

  36. See Figure 11 in Part II, Section 5.2 of this Synthesis Report for more details.

  37. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2012. Energy Technology Perspectives: How to Secure a Clean Energy Future. Paris. LINK

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2012. Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030. Paris. LINK

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2006. Infrastructure to 2030. Paris. LINK

  38. For a discussion, see: Stiglitz, J.E., Sen, A. and Fitoussi, J-P., Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress. LINK

  39. Eliasch, J., 2008. Climate Change: Financing Global Forests – the Eliasch Review. Her Majesty’s Government, London. LINK

  40. IEA, 2011. Energy for All: Financing Access for the Poor.

  41. See: Hamilton, K., Brahmbhatt, M., Bianco, N., and Liu, J.M., 2014. Co-benefits and Climate Action. New Climate Economy contributing paper. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. LINK

  42. Hamilton, K., Brahmbhatt, M., Bianco, N. and Liu, J.M., 2014 (forthcoming). Co-benefits and Climate Action. New Climate Economy contributing paper. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. LINK

    Particulate matter (PM), a mix of tiny solid and liquid particles suspended in the air, affects more people than any other air pollutant. The most health-damaging particles have a diameter of 10 microns or less, which can penetrate the lungs; these are referred to as PM10. In many cities, the concentration of particles under 2.5 microns is also measured; this is PM2.5. See: World Health Organization (WHO), 2014. Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health. Fact Sheet No. 313. Geneva. LINK For global PM2.5 mortality estimates, see: WHO, 2014. Burden of Disease from Ambient Air Pollution for 2012.

  43. Teng, F., 2014 (forthcoming). China and the New Climate Economy. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Tsinghua University. LINK

  44. See Klevnäs, P. and Korsbakken, J. I., 2014. A Changing Outlook for Coal Power. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. LINK

  45. See Chapter 2: Cities for an in-depth discussion.

  46. See, e.g., Gwilliam, K. M., 2002. Cities on the Move: A World Bank Urban Transport Strategy Review. The World Bank, Washington, DC. LINK

    For a more recent discussion, focused on Africa, see: Schwela, D. and Haq, G., 2013. Transport and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa. SEI policy brief. Stockholm Environment Institute, York, UK. LINK

  47. For an in-depth discussion of these issues, see: Denton, F. and Wilbanks, T., 2014. Chapter 20: Climate-Resilient Pathways: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Sustainable Development. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C.B. Field, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastandrea, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

    For practical guidance on “climate-proofing” and ways to identify adaptation needs, evaluate options, and plan and implement adaptation, see: PROVIA, 2013. PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change. Consultation document. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. LINK

  48. Chapter 3: Land Use of the main report discusses climate-smart agriculture in greater detail.

  49. Oxford Economics, 2014 (forthcoming).The Economic Impact of Taxing Carbon. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Oxford, UK. LINK

  50. IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group III). See Table SPM.2.

  51. See endnote 15 for GDP growth projections to 2030.

  52. See: Bosetti V., Carraro, C., Galeotti, M., Massetti, E. and Tavoni, M., 2006. WITCH: A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model. The Energy Journal, 27. 13–37. LINK

    Gillingham, K., Newell, R. G. and Pizer, W. A., 2008. Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis. Energy Economics, 30 (6). 2734–2753. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2008.03.001.

    Dellink, R., Lanzi, E., Chateau, J., Bosello, F., Parrado, R. and de Bruin, K., 2014. Consequences of Climate Change Damages for Economic Growth: A Dynamic Quantitative Assessment. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economics Department Working Papers No. 1135. OECD Publishing, Paris. LINK

  53. Chateau, J., Saint-Martin A. and Manfredi, T., 2011. Employment Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in OECD: A General-Equilibrium Perspective. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Environment Working Papers No. 32. OECD Publishing, Paris. LINK

  54. Chateau et al., 2011. Employment Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in OECD.

  55. ECF, 2014. Europe’s Low-carbon Transition: Understanding the Challenges and Opportunities for the Chemical Sector.

  56. Ferroukhi, R., Lucas, H., Renner, M., Lehr, U., Breitschopf, B., Lallement, D., and Petrick, K., 2013. Renewable Energy and Jobs. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. LINK

  57. The World Coal Association estimates that 7 million people are directly employed by the industry. LINK [Accessed 30 August 2014.]

  58. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2012 The Jobs Potential of a Shift towards a Low-carbon Economy, Paris. LINK

  59. This and the next two paragraphs draw on insights presented in a special issue of the International Labour Organization’s International Journal of Labour Research (Vol. 2, Issue 2, 2010): Climate Change and Labour: The Need for a “Just Transition”. LINK

  60. For lessons from trade liberalisation adjustment experience, see: Porto, G., 2012. The Cost of Adjustment to Green Growth Policies: Lessons from Trade Adjustment Costs. Research Working Paper No. WPS 6237. The World Bank, Washington, DC. LINK

  61. The Global Subsidies Initiative, established by the International Institute for Sustainable Development, has produced several case studies of fossil fuel subsidy reforms. LINK

    For case studies of Indonesia and Ghana in particular, see:

    Beaton, C. and Lontoh, L., 2010. Lessons Learned from Indonesia’s Attempts to Reform Fossil-Fuel Subsidies. Prepared for the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) of the International Institute for Sustainable Development. Geneva. LINK

    Laan, T., Beaton, C. and Presta, B., 2010. Strategies for Reforming Fossil-Fuel Subsidies: Practical Lessons from Ghana, France and Senegal. Prepared for the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) of the International Institute for Sustainable Development. Geneva. LINK

    For more detailed discussions on conditional cash-transfer programmes, see: Vagliasindi, M., 2012. Implementing Energy Subsidy Reforms: An Overview of the Key Issues. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 6122. The World Bank, Washington, DC. LINK

  62. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2013. Pricing Carbon: Policy Perspectives. Paris. LINK

  63. In policy discussions, a 2°C average global temperature increase is often treated as the threshold between “safe” and “dangerous” levels of warming. The concept of “dangerous” climate change comes from the overarching objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), namely “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. The goal of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels was agreed at the UNFCCC Conference in Cancun in 2010. (LINK and LINK)

    But the IPCC has made it clear that climate change impacts will vary by location, and substantial damages may occur well before 2°C is reached. See: IPCC, 2013, Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group I), and IPCC, 2014, Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group II).

    There is also a growing scientific and policy literature on the risks associated with a global temperature rise of 4°C or more. See, for example, the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A special issue published in 2011: Four Degrees and Beyond: the Potential for a Global Temperature Change of Four Degrees and its Implications. LINK

    Also see: The World Bank, 2012. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided. Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, Washington, DC. LINK

  64. This estimate and emission reduction needs to 2030 are based on analysis of the IPCC’s review of emission scenarios, as shown in Figure SPM.4 and Table SPM.1 in IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group III). The GHG emission levels given here correspond to the median values for two emission pathways. One is consistent with baseline scenarios associated with a <33% probability that warming by 2100 relative to 1850-1900 will be less than 3°C, and a <50% probability that it will exceed 4°C. The other is consistent with mitigation scenarios associated with a >66% probability of keeping warming under 2°C. For a detailed discussion, see the New Climate Economy Technical Note, Quantifying Emission Reduction PotentialLINK

  65. This and the estimate that follows are based on New Climate Economy staff analysis, using data from the World Bank, World Development Indicators 2014, and calculations for 2015-50 using illustrative GDP growth assumptions of 3% per year in 2015–30 and 2.5% a year in 2030–50. For further discussion, see: Brahmbhatt et al., 2014 (forthcoming). Decoupling Carbon Emissions from Economic Growth: A Review of International Trends.

  66. All of this needs to be understood in the context that the IPCC assumes high levels of aerosols – small particles and liquid droplets – in the atmosphere that can prevent solar energy from reaching the Earth’s surface, allowing for higher levels of emissions until 2030. If those aerosols were reduced (e.g. due to tighter pollution controls), staying on a 2°C path after 2030 would require negative emissions in the second half of the century. This poses substantial technical challenges that remain unresolved.

    See: Clarke, L. and Jiang, K., 2014. Chapter 6: Assessing Transformation Pathways. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  67. For a detailed outline of the data sources and methodology, see the New Climate Economy Technical Note, Quantifying Emission Reduction PotentialLINK

  68. See Clarke and Jiang, 2014. Chapter 6: Assessing Transformation Pathways.

  69. See IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group III).

  70. See the New Climate Economy Technical Note, Quantifying the Multiple Benefits from Low Carbon Actions. LINK

  71. McKinsey & Company, 2014 (forthcoming). Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v3.0. Version 2.1 is available at: LINK

  72.  For a detailed outline of the data sources and methodology, see the New Climate Economy Technical Note, Quantifying the Multiple Benefits from Low-Carbon Actions: A Preliminary AnalysisLINK

  73. A number of market indices have been launched, such as the Resource Efficiency Leaders Index LINK, which show systematic outperformance against the stock market as a whole through over-weighting those companies which are resource efficiency leaders in their sectors (greater than 70% since 2008 in the case of RESSEFLI).

  74. World Business Council on Sustainable Development, 2013. Reporting Matters 2013 Baseline Report. LINK

  75. “Net emissions” takes into account the possibility of storing and sequestering some emissions. See:

    Haites, E., Yamin, F. and Höhne, N., 2013. Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal Agreement on Climate Change, Working Paper N°16/13, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), Paris. LINK

    Höhne, N.. van Breevoort, P., Deng, Y., Larkin, J. and Hänsel, G., 2013. Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century. Ecofys, Cologne, Germany. LINK

  76. Seto, K.C. and Dhakal, S., 2014. Chapter 12: Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  77. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that in 2010, urban areas accounted for 67–76% of global energy use and 71–76% of global CO2 emissions from final energy use. See: Seto andDhakal, 2014. Chapter 12: Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning.

  78. Seto and Dhakal, 2014. Chapter 12: Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning.

  79. United Nations (UN), 2014. World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 revision. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. LINK

    For detailed data, see: LINK

  80. Seto, K.C., Güneralp, B. and Hutyra, L.R., 2012. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(40). 16083–16088. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1211658109.

  81. Dargay, J., Gatley D., and Sommer M., 2007. Vehicle ownership and income growth, worldwide: 1960-2030. The Energy Journal, 28(4). 143–170. LINK

  82. Litman, T., 2014 (forthcoming). Analysis of Public Policies that Unintentionally Encourage and Subsidize Urban Sprawl. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Victoria Transport Policy Institute, commissioned by the London School of Economics and Political Science. LINK

  83. Litman, 2014 (forthcoming). Analysis of Public Policies that Unintentionally Encourage and Subsidize Urban Sprawl.

  84. The World Bank and Development Research Center of the State Council, 2014. Urban China: Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization. Washington, DC. LINK

  85. Fan, J., 2006. Industrial Agglomeration and Difference of Regional Labor Productivity: Chinese Evidence with International Comparison. Economic Research Journal, 11. 73–84. LINK

  86. Gouldson, A., Colenbrander, S., McAnulla, F., Sudmant, A., Kerr, N., Sakai, P., Hall, S. and Kuylenstierna, J.C.I., 2014 (forthcoming). Exploring the Economic Case for Low-Carbon Cities. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds, and Stockholm Environment Institute, York, UK. LINK

  87. These are New Climate Economy (NCE) estimates based on analysis of global infrastructure requirements by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2012. Energy Technology Perspectives 2012) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2007. Infrastructure to 2030) for road investment, water and waste, telecommunications, and buildings (energy efficiency), and conservative assumptions about the share of urban infrastructure and the infrastructure investment costs (based on multiple sources) of sprawling versus smarter urban development. This should be treated as an indicative order of magnitude global estimate. This estimate is corroborated by evidence from Litman, 2014 (forthcoming), Analysis of Public Policies that Unintentionally Encourage and Subsidize Urban Sprawl, which looks at the infrastructure and public service costs of urban sprawl in the United States.

  88. Arrington, G.B. and Cervero, R., 2008. Effects of TOD on Housing, Parking, and Travel. Transit Cooperative Research Programme Report No. 128. LINK

  89. See: Laconte, P., 2005. Urban and Transport Management – International Trends and Practices. Paper presented at the Joint International Symposium: Sustainable Urban Transport and City. Shanghai. LINK

    For more on Houston’s efforts, see Box 7 in the Chapter 2: Cities in our main report.

  90. Carrigan, A., King, R., Velásquez, J.M., Duduta, N., and Raifman, M., 2013. Social, Environmental and Economic Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit. EMBARQ, a programme of the World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. LINK

  91. See: LINK

  92. The World Bank and Development Research Center of the State Council, 2014. Urban China.

  93. Current data from: DeMaio, P., 2013. The Bike-sharing World – End of 2013. The Bike-sharing Blog, 31 December. LINK (The data cited by DeMaio come from The Bike-sharing World Map LINK a Google map of known bike-sharing schemes.)

    Data for 2000 from: Midgley, P., 2011. Bicycle-Sharing Schemes: Enhancing Sustainable Mobility in Urban Areas. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Commission on Sustainable Development. Background Paper No. 8, CSD19/2011/BP8. LINK

  94. Floater, G., Rode, P., Zenghelis, D., Carrero, M.M., Smith, D., Baker K., and Heeckt, C., 2013. Stockholm: Green Economy Leader Report. LSE Cities, London School of Economics and Political Science, London. LINK

  95. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2009. Sustainable Urban Planning in Brazil. Nairobi. LINK

    See also: Barth, B., 2014. Curitiba: the Greenest City on Earth. The Ecologist. 15 March. LINK

  96. Xinhua, 2014. China unveils Landmark Urbanization Plan16 March. LINK

  97. The World Bank, 2013. Planning and Financing Low-Carbon, Livable Cities. Washington DC. LINK

  98. The World Bank, 2013. Planning and Financing Low-Carbon, Livable Cities.

  99. A further 8% of agricultural land is moderately degraded, and the amount is increasing. See: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2011. The State of the Worlds Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW) Managing Systems at Risk. Rome. LINK

    See also work by partners of the Economics of Land Degradation: A Global Initiative for Sustainable Land Management, launched in 2013: LINK

  100. Kissinger, G., Herold, M. and de Sy, V., 2012. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: A Synthesis Report for REDD+ Policymakers. Lexeme Consulting, Vancouver. LINK

  101. IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

    The IPCC reports net total anthropogenic GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in 2010 as 10–12 Gt CO2e, or 24% of all GHG emissions in 2010. The AFOLU chapter further specifies that GHG emissions from agriculture in 2000–2009 were 5.0–5.8 Gt CO2e per year. See: Smith, P. and Bustamante, M., 2014. Chapter 11: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  102. The 11% global emissions from the FOLU component of AFOLU is from Searchinger, T., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Lipinski, B., Waite, R., Winterbottom, R., Dinshaw, A. and Heimlich, R., 2013. Creating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Sustainably Feed More than 9 Billion People by 2050. World Resources Report 2013-14: Interim Findings. World Resources Institute, the World Bank, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Washington, DC. LINK

    Searchinger et al. then attribute a further 13% of global GHG emissions to agriculture directly. The estimate of roughly 20% of global emissions from gross deforestation is derived from adding estimates from carbon savings from reforestation and afforestation to estimates of emissions from net deforestation in Houghton, R. A., 2013. The emissions of carbon from deforestation and degradation in the tropics: past trends and future potential.

  103. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2010. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010. FAO Forestry Paper 163. Rome. LINK

    Also see: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2012. Global Forest Land-Use Change 1990–2005. By E.J. Lindquist, R. D’Annunzio, A. Gerrand, K., MacDicken, F., Achard, R., Beuchle, A., Brink, H.D., Eva, P., Mayaux, J., San-Miguel-Ayanz and H-J. Stibig. FAO Forestry Paper 169. Rome. LINK

  104. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2012. Global Forest Land-use Change 19902005. Rome. LINK

    Houghton, R.A., 2008. Improved estimates of net carbon emissions from land cover change in the tropics for the 1990s. In TRENDS: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, US. LINK

    International Energy Agency (IEA), 2012. World Energy Outlook 2012. Paris. LINK

    United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2012. The Emissions Gap Report 2012. Nairobi, Kenya. LINK

    US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2012. Annual Energy Outlook 2012 with Projections to 2035. Washington, DC. LINK

  105.  The World Bank, 2007. World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development. Washington, DC. LINK

  106. World Bank data. LINK [Accessed 16 July 2014.]

  107. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2013. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023. Paris and Rome. LINK

  108. Searchinger et al., 2013. Creating a Sustainable Food Future.

  109. See: The new green revolution: A bigger rice bowl. The Economist, 10 May 2014. LINK

    Rice in particular is a crop that farmers can replant from their own harvests without yield loss, so it is hard to recover the cost of private breeding.

  110.  Beintema, N., Stads, G.-J., Fuglie, K., and Heisey, P., 2012. ASTI Global Assessment of Agricultural R&D Spending. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, and Global Forum on Agricultural Research, Rome. LINK

  111. Gale, F., 2013. Growth and Evolution in China’s Agricultural Support Policies. Economic Research Service Report No. 153. US Department of Agriculture. LINK

  112. Grossman, N., and Carlson, D., 2011. Agriculture Policy in India: The Role of Input Subsidies. USITC Executive Briefings on Trade.

  113. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2013. Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2013. Paris. LINK

  114. Zhang, W., Dou, Z., He, P., Ju, X.-T., Powlson, D., et al., 2013. New technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions from nitrogenous fertilizer in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(21). 8375–8380. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1210447110.

  115. Hoda. A., 2014. Low Carbon Strategies for India in Agriculture and Forestry. Unpublished paper presented at The Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Workshop on the New Climate Economy, ICRIER, India Habitat Center, New Delhi, 15 April.

  116. Based on work by partners of the Economics of Land Degradation: A Global Initiative for Sustainable Land Management launched in 2013 and based at the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. LINK [Accessed 29 April 2014.]

    Scientific coordination of the ELD initiative is provided by the United Nations University – Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH). UNEP, IUCN, and The International Food Policy Research Institute are key technical partners.

  117. Berry, L., Olson, J., and Campbell, D., 2003. Assessing the extent, cost and impact of land degradation at the national level: findings and lessons learned from seven pilot case studies. Global Mechanism. LINK

  118. Dang, Y., Ren, W., Tao, B., Chen, G., Lu, C., et al., 2014. Climate and Land Use Controls on Soil Organic Carbon in the Loess Plateau Region of China. PLoS ONE, 9(5). e95548. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0095548.

  119.  Cooper, P.J.M., Cappiello, S., Vermeulen, S.J., Campbell, B.M., Zougmoré, R. and Kinyangi, J., 2013. Large-Scale Implementation of Adaptation and Mitigation Actions in Agriculture. CCAFS Working Paper No. 50. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Copenhagen. LINK

  120. Photos Till Niermann, GNU free documentation License v1.2 (1990) and Erick Fernandes (2012).

  121. World Resources Institute, 2008. World Resources 2008: Roots of Resilience – Growing the Wealth of the Poor. Produced by WRI in collaboration with United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme, and the World Bank, Washington, DC. LINK

  122. Sendzimir, J., Reij, C. P. and Magnuszewski, P., 2011. Rebuilding Resilience in the Sahel: Regreening in the Maradi and Zinder Regions of Niger. Ecology and Society, 16(3), Art. 1. DOI:10.5751/ES-04198-160301.

    And: Pye-Smith, C., 2013. The Quiet Revolution: how Niger’s farmers are re-greening the parklands of the Sahel. ICRAF Trees for Change, No. 12. World Agroforestry Center, Nairobi. LINK

  123.  Winterbottom, R., Reij, C., Garrity, D., Glover, J., Hellums, D., McGahuey, M. and Scherr, S., 2013. Improving Land and Water Management. Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment Four. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. LINK

  124. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2014. State of the Worlds Forests 2014: Enhancing the Socioeconomic Benefits from Forests. Rome. LINK

    See also: IEA, 2012. World Energy Outlook 2012.

  125. WWF, 2012. Chapter 4: Forests and Wood Products, In WWF Living Forest Report. Washington, DC. LINK

  126. Rautner, M., Leggett, M., and Davis, F., 2013. The Little Book of Big Deforestation Drivers. Global Canopy Programme, Oxford. LINK

  127. Kissinger et al., 2012. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

  128. See, e.g.: Leonard, S., 2014. Forests, Land Use and The Green Climate Fund: Open for Business? Forests Climate Change, 5 June. LINK

  129. Minnemeyer, S., Laestadius, L., Sizer, N., Saint-Laurent, C., and Potapov, P., 2011. Global Map of Forest Landscape Restoration Opportunities. Forest and Landscape Restoration project, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. LINK

    They estimate that there are 2.314 billion ha of lost and degraded forest landscapes around the world (relative to land that could support forests in the absence of human interference; precise data and interpretation confirmed by map author Lars Laestadius, 14 August 2014).

    The Aichi Target #15 states: “By 2020, ecosystem resilience and the contribution of biodiversity to carbon stocks has been enhanced, through conservation and restoration, including restoration of at least 15 per cent of degraded ecosystems, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation and to combating desertification.”15% of 2.314 billion ha is 347 million ha. LINK [Accessed 22 July 2014.]

  130. The estimate is a doubling of the estimate of US$85 billion given for 150 million ha in Verdonne, M., Maginnis, S., and Seidl, A., 2014 (forthcoming). Re-examining the Role of Landscape Restoration in REDD+. International Union for Conservation of Nature. Thus, the estimate is conservative, as it ignores the last 50 million ha of the 350 million ha estimate. Their calculation assumes 34% of the restoration is agroforestry, 23% is planted forests, and 43% is improved secondary and naturally regenerated forests, all distributed across different biomes. Benefits assessed included timber products, non-timber forest products, fuel, better soil and water management remunerated through crop higher yields, and recreation.

  131. This is based on an average from applying per ha estimates of mitigation in the literature, which yields roughly 2 Gt CO2e for 350 million ha, and taking a range of 50% above and below to account for the carbon differences that would ensue from different mixes of agroforestry, mosaic restoration in temperate zones, and natural regeneration of tropical moist forest, for example, within the total area restored. More details are in the forthcoming New Climate Economy Technical Note, Quantifying the Multiple Benefits from Low Carbon Actions: A Preliminary AnalysisLINK

  132. Parry, A., James, K., and LeRoux, S., 2014 (forthcoming). Strategies to Achieve Economic and Environmental Gains by Reducing Food Waste. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Waste & Resources Action Programme (WRAP), Banbury, UK. LINK

  133. Estimates vary between 49% to 2011 or 54% to 2012, depending on methodology and data sources. See BP, 2013. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013. London. LINK

  134. Global primary energy consumption rose by 3,388 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) from 2000 to 2013, to 12,730 Mtoe; in that same period, China’s primary energy consumption rose by 1,872 Mtoe, to 2852.4 Mtoe in 2013. See BP, 2014. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014. London. LINK

  135. This range is based on a New Climate Economy staff review of recent projections, including:

    19% in the New Policies Scenario and 25% in the Current Policiesscenario in: International Energy Agency (IEA), 2013. World Energy Outlook 2013. Paris. LINK

    26% in the 6DS scenario in: IEA, 2012. Energy Technology Perspectives 2012.

    27% estimate in: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2013. International Energy Outlook. DOE/EIA-0484(2013). Washington, DC. LINK

    29–33% range provided in baselines developed for: GEA, 2012. Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, 2012. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. LINK

  136. This includes an estimated US$23 trillion in energy supply and US$24 trillion across transport engines and energy use in buildings and industry. See Chapter 6: Finance in our main report for more discussion of future energy infrastructure needs.

  137. For energy-related emissions outside direct industry emissions, see all sectors except AFOLU and waste in Figure TS.3a in: IPCC, 2014. Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

    For direct energy-related emissions in industry, see Table 10.2 of Fischedick, M. and Roy, J., 2014. Chapter 10: Industry. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  138. The World Bank, n.d. Global Economic Monitor (GEM) Commodities.

  139. Planning Commission of the Government of India, 2013. India Energy Security Scenarios 2047. LINK

  140. IEA, 2013. World Energy Outlook 2013.

    Planning Commission of the Government of India, 2013. India Energy Security Scenarios 2047.

    EIA, 2013. International Energy Outlook 2013.

    Feng, L.Q., 2012. Analysis on Coal Import Origin of China (in Chinese). Master thesis, Inner Mongolia University. LINK

    Wood Mackenzie, 2013. International thermal coal trade: What Will the Future Look Like for Japanese Buyers? Presentation for the Clean Coal Day 2013 International Symposium, Tokyo, 4-5 September 2013.

  141. Hamilton, K., Brahmbhatt, M., Bianco, N. and Liu, J.M., 2014 (forthcoming). Co-benefits and Climate Action. New Climate Economy contributing paper. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. LINK

  142. See Klevnäs, P. and Korsbakken, J.I., 2014 (forthcoming). A Changing Outlook for Coal Power. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. LINK

  143. IEA, 2013. World Energy Outlook 2013.

  144. 11 Gt CO2 corresponds to the total reductions in the 450 scenario relative to the Current Policies scenario. See IEA, 2013, World Energy Outlook 2013.

  145. The estimated range is likely cost-effective reductions of 4.7-6.6 GtCO2 per year. For further discussion of the scope and limitations of these estimates, see the New Climate Economy technical note, Quantifying Emission Reduction Potential. LINK

  146. This section focuses on electricity, but options to use renewable energy also exist across heating, industry, and transport systems. A recent assessment by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) also identifies significant opportunities for cost-effective uses across these sectors. See: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2014. REmap 2030: A Renewable Energy Roadmap. Abu Dhabi. LINK

  147. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2014. Electricity Information (2014 preliminary edition). IEA Data Services. LINK

  148. Module prices: International Energy Agency (IEA), 2014. Energy Technology Perspectives 2014. Paris. LINK

  149. Cost comparisons quoted here do not in general include full system costs / grid costs, as discussed in subsequent sections. For cost estimates and statements on auctions, see:

    REN21, 2014. Renewables 2014 Global Status Report. Paris: Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century. LINK

    And:

    International Energy Agency (IEA), 2013. Technology Roadmap: Wind Energy – 2013 Edition. Paris. LINK

  150. Liebreich, M., 2014. Keynote address, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit 2014, New York, April 7. LINK

  151. IEA, 2014. Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 (module prices).

  152. Ernst & Young, 2013. Country Focus: Chile. RECAI: Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index, 39 (November), pp.24–25. LINK

  153. REN21, 2014. Renewables 2014 Global Status Report.

  154. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2012. Solar Photovoltaics. Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series, Volume 1: Power Sector, Issue 4/5. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. LINK

  155. For illustration, the IEA’s central scenario (New Policies) envisions solar and wind combined adding more electricity production than either coal or gas until 2035. See: IEA, 2013. World Energy Outlook 2013.

  156. Channell, J., Lam, T., and Pourreza, S., 2012. Shale and Renewables: a Symbiotic Relationship. A Longer-term Global Energy Investment Strategy Driven by Changes to the Energy Mix. Citi Research report, September 2012. LINK

    EIA, 2014. Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2014. LCOE for conventional coal in Table 1.

    International Energy Agency (IEA), 2014. Power Generation in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios – Assumed investment costs, operation and maintenance costs and efficiencies in the IEA World Energy Investment Outlook 2014. Capital costs for subcritical steam coal plants. Spreadsheet available at: LINK

    Nemet, G.F., 2006. Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics. Energy Policy, 34(17). 3218–3232. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.06.020.

  157. BP, 2013. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013.

  158. IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group III).

  159. For an in-depth discussion of this topic, see Section 3.5 of Chapter 4: Energy of our report, as well as the NCE background paper on which it is based: Lazarus, M., Tempest, K., Klevnäs, P. and Korsbakken, J.I., 2014. Natural Gas: Guardrails for a Potential Climate Bridge. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. LINK

  160. See, e.g., IPCC, 2014, Summary for Policymakers (IPCC AR5, Working Group III), and the range of scenarios in GEA, 2012. Global Energy Assessment.

    Also: IPCC, 2005. IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Metz, B., O. Davidson, H.C. de Coninck, M. Loos, and L.A. Meyer, eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  161. Based on analysis by the New Climate Economy project team, in the IEA’s 2°C Scenario (2DS), the annual investment rate in CCS-equipped facilities would reach almost US$30 billion/year in 2020, with cumulative investment reaching more than US$100 billion. Projections are based on data from IEA, 2012, Energy Technology Perspectives 2012.

    Actual investment in 2007–2012 averaged only US$2 billion per year. See: IEA, 2013. Technology Roadmap: Carbon Capture and Storage 2013.

  162. IEA, 2011. Energy for All.

  163. For an in-depth discussion of these issues, see Section 3.4 of Chapter 4: Energy of our report, as well as: Jürisoo, M., Pachauri, S., Johnson, O. and Lambe, F., 2014. Can Low-Carbon Options Change Conditions for Expanding Energy Access in Africa? SEI and IIASA discussion brief, based on a New Climate Economy project workshop. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. LINK

  164. International Energy Agency, 2013. Energy efficiency market report.

  165. Planning Commission of the Government of India, 2013. India Energy Security Scenarios 2047.

  166. Analysis for the Global Commission, drawing on: IEA, 2012. World Energy Outlook 2012; GEA, 2012. Global Energy Assessment, and Bruckner et al., 2014. Chapter 7: Energy systems.

  167. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2013. Inventory of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures for Fossil Fuels 2013. OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: 10.1787/9789264187610-en.

  168. IEA, 2013. World Energy Outlook 2013.

  169. The International Monetary Fund took a different approach to calculating the value of fossil fuel subsidies, by including the cost of unpriced externalities such as climate change. The agency estimated a global value for such subsidies of US$2 trillion annually. See: International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2013. Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications. Washington, DC. LINK

  170. IEA, 2013. World Energy Outlook 2013.

  171. The World Bank, 2014. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2014. Washington, DC. LINK

    Note: this statistic includes Australia, which has since removed its carbon tax.

  172. Climate Policy Initiative analysis for the New Climate Economy project, based on data from:

    International Energy Agency (IEA), 2012. Energy Technology Perspectives: How to Secure a Clean Energy Future. Paris. LINK

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2012. Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030. Paris. LINK

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2006. Infrastructure to 2030. Paris. LINK

  173. Climate Policy Initiative analysis for the New Climate Economy project, based on data from: IEA, 2012, Energy Technology Perspectives; OECD, 2012, Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030; and OECD, 2006, Infrastructure to 2030. Ratio of GDP is estimated by calculating GDP for 2015–2030 per the global growth rate projected in:

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2012. Medium and Long-Term Scenarios for Global Growth and Imbalances. OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2012, Issue 1. Paris. LINK

  174. Kennedy. C. and Corfee-Morlot, J., 2012. Mobilising Private Investment in Low-Carbon, Climate-Resilient Infrastructure. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Papers. OECD, Paris. LINK

  175. Further details of policies to reform asset pricing are provided in Chapter 5: Economics of Change in our main report.

  176. Climate Policy Initiative (CPI), 2014. Roadmap to a Low Carbon Electricity System in the U.S. and Europe. San Francisco, CA, US. LINK

  177. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 2013. Development Banks: Breaking the US$100 billion a year barrier. New York. LINK

  178. Climate Policy Initiative analysis based on data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

  179. BNEF, 2013. Development Banks: Breaking the US$100 billion a year barrier.

  180. Dezem, V. and Lima, M.S., 2014. Wind-Farm Developers Win Biggest Share of Brazil Auction. Bloomberg. LINK

  181. See: Nelson, D., Goggins, A., Hervé-Mignucci, M., Szambelan, S.J., and Zuckerman, J., 2014 (forthcoming). Moving to a Low Carbon Economy: The Financial Impact of the Low-Carbon Transition. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Climate Policy Initiative, San Francisco, CA, US. LINK

  182. IEA, 2012. Energy Technology Perspectives. 

    International Energy Agency (IEA), 2014. World Energy Investment Outlook 2014. Paris. LINK

    Also: Platts World Electric Power Database and Rystad UCube database.

  183. This refers to a transition to a 2°C scenario from “business as usual”.

  184. For an in-depth discussion of stranded assets, see Section 5.1 of Chapter 6: Finance in our main report, as well as the background paper from which it is derived: Nelson, D., Goggins, A., Hervé-Mignucci, M., Szambelan, S.J., Vladeck, T., and Zuckerman, J., 2014 (forthcoming). Moving to a Low Carbon Economy: The Impact of Different Transition Policy Pathways on the Owners of Fossil Fuel Resources and Assets. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Climate Policy Initiative, San Francisco, CA, US. LINK

  185. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2012. OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050. OECD Publishing, Paris. LINK

  186. US Energy Information Administration, 2014. EIA projects modest needs for new electric generation capacity. Today in Energy, 16 July. LINK

  187. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2013. Technology Roadmap: Energy Efficient Building Envelopes. Paris. LINK

  188. Sperling, D. and Lutsey, N., 2009. Energy efficiency in passenger transportation. The Bridge, 39(2). 22–30. LINK

  189. See: Google Inc., 2014. Helping our communities adapt to climate change. 19 March. LINK

  190. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2014. China Out-spends the US for the First Time in $15bn Smart Grid Market. 18 February. LINK

  191. US International Trade Commission, 2012. Remanufactured Goods: An Overview of the U.S. and Global Industries, Markets, and Trade. USITC Publication 4356. Washington, DC. LINK

  192. Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2012. Towards a Circular Economy. Vol. 1. Cowes, Isle of Wight, UK. LINK

  193. Estimates are for 2010, as given in: Lucon, O. and Ürge‐Vorsatz, D., 2014. Chapter 9: Buildings. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

  194. Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2012. Towards a Circular Economy.

  195. Xu, D., 2014. How to build a skyscraper in two weeks. For the 96% recycled steel figure and more data from Broad Group, see the company’s Sustainable Building brochure: LINK

  196. National Institute of Building Sciences, 2014. Industry Proposes Innovative Method for Implementing Green Construction Code. LINK

  197. Nordhaus, W.D., 2002. Modeling induced innovation in climate-change policy. In Technological change and the environment. A. Grübler, N. Nakicenovic, and W.D. Nordhaus (eds.). Resources for the Future, Washington, DC. 182–209.

  198. Dechezleprêtre, A., Martin, R. and Mohnen, M., 2013. Knowledge Spillovers from Clean and Dirty Technologies: A Patent Citation Analysis. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 151 and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 135. London. LINK

  199. Prahalad, C.K. and Hammond, A., 2002. Serving the world’s poor, profitably. Harvard Business Review, 80(9). 48–57, 124.

  200. Hultman, et al., 2013. Green Growth Innovation.

  201. Harvey, I., 2008. Intellectual Property Rights: The Catalyst to Deliver Low Carbon Technologies. Breaking the Climate Deadlock briefing paper. The Climate Group. LINK

  202. Chiavari, J., and Tam, C., 2011. Good Practice Policy Framework for Energy Technology Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D). Information Paper from the International Energy Agency. Paris. LINK

  203. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2012. Energy and Climate Policy: Bending the Technological Trajectory. Paris. LINK

  204. The Pew Charitable Trusts, 2013. Advantage America: The U.S.-China Clean Energy Trade Relationship in 2011. Philadelphia, PA, US. LINK

  205. The OECD and Eurostat have defined the sector thus: “The environmental goods and services industry consists of activities which produce goods and services to measure, prevent, limit, minimise or correct environmental damage to water, air and soil, as well as problems related to waste, noise and eco-systems. This includes cleaner technologies, products and services that reduce environmental risk and minimise pollution and resource use.”

    See: OECD and Eurostat, 1999. The Environmental Goods and Services Industry: Manual for Data Collection and Analysis. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, and Statistical Office of the European Communities, Brussels. LINK

    Data cited are from: Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), 2014. WTO Environmental Goods Agreement: Promoting Made-in-America Clean Technology Exports, Green Growth and Jobs. Fact sheet, July 2014. LINK

    Total global trade was estimated at US$18 trillion in 2012. See: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2013. UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2013. Geneva. LINK

  206. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2013. Green Economy and Trade – Trends, Challenges and OpportunitiesLINK

  207. Carbon Trust and Shell, 2013. A “MUST” WIN: Capitalising on New Global Low Carbon Markets to Boost UK Export GrowthLINK

    The estimate uses the International Monetary Fund classification of emerging and developing economies: LINK

  208. The US had a small trade surplus in the year reviewed, 2011. See: The Pew Charitable Trusts, 2013, Advantage America.

  209. For an overview, see: Höhne, N., Ellermann, C. and Li, L., 2014. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCC. Discussion paper. Ecofys, Cologne, Germany. LINK

  210. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that historical GHG data are quite uncertain, especially for the more distant past (e.g. the 18th and 19th centuries). The allocation of historical responsibility also changes based on the starting point chosen (1750, 1850, or as late as 1990), the gases considered (CO2 or all GHGs), and whether emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) are included. Citing den Elzen et al., 2013 (see below), the IPCC notes that, for example, developed countries’ share of historical emissions is almost 80% when non-CO2 GHGs, LULUCF emissions and recent emissions are excluded, or about 47% when they are included. Citing Höhne et al., 2011 (see below), the IPCC adds: “As a general rule, because emissions of long‐lived gases are rising, while emissions of the distant past are highly uncertain, their influence is overshadowed by the dominance of the much higher emissions of recent decades.”

    See: Victor, D. and Zhou, D., 2014. Chapter 1: Introductory Chapter. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. LINK

    Den Elzen, M.G.J., Olivier, J.G.J., Höhne, N. and Janssens-Maenhout, G., 2013. Countries’ contributions to climate change: effect of accounting for all greenhouse gases, recent trends, basic needs and technological progress. Climatic Change, 121(2). 397–412. DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0865-6.

    Höhne, N., Blum, H., Fuglestvedt, J., Skeie, R. B., Kurosawa, A., et al., 2011. Contributions of individual countries’ emissions to climate change and their uncertainty. Climatic Change, 106(3). 359–391. DOI:10.1007/s10584-010-9930-6.

  211. Victor and Zhou, 2014. Chapter 1: Introductory Chapter. See in particular Figures 1.4 and 1.6.

  212. See Victor and Zhou, 2014, Chapter 1: Introductory Chapter, as well as: Winkler, H., Jayaraman, T., Pan, J., de Oliveira, A.S., Zhang, Y., Sant, G., Miguez, G., Letete, T., Marquard, A., Raubenheimer, S., 2011. Equitable Access to Sustainable Development: Contribution to the Body of Scientific Knowledge. A paper by experts from BASIC countries. BASIC expert group: Beijing, Brasilia, Cape Town and Mumbai. LINK

  213. Buchner, B., Herve-Mignucci, M., Trabacchi, C., Wilkinson, J., Stadelmann, M., Boyd, R., Mazza, F., Falconer, A. and Micale, V., 2013. The Landscape of Climate Finance 2013. Climate Policy Initiative, San Francisco, CA, US. LINK

    “Climate finance” includes capital investments costs and grants targeting low-carbon and climate-resilient development with direct or indirect greenhouse gas mitigation or adaptation objectives and outcomes. The data relate to 2011–12.

  214. Buchner et al., 2013. The Landscape of Climate Finance 2013.

  215. Buchner et al., 2013. The Landscape of Climate Finance 2013.

  216. Michaelowa, A., and Hoch, S., 2013. FIT For Renewables? Design options for the Green Climate Fund to support renewable energy feed-in tariffs in developing countries. World Future Council, September 2013. LINK

    Deutsche Bank (DB), 2011. GET FiT Plus, De-Risking Clean Energy Models in a Developing Country Context, DB Climate Change Advisors, September 2011. LINK

  217. International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, 2014. APEC talks “green goods,” trade remedies in background. BIORES, 22 August. LINK

  218. Ghosh, A., and Esserman, E., 2014. India-US Cooperation on Renewable Energy and Trade. India-US Track II Dialogue on Climate Change and Energy. LINK

  219. Velders, G.J.M., Solomon, S. and Daniel, J.S., 2014. Growth of climate change commitments from HFC banks and emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14(9). 4563–4572. DOI:10.5194/acp-14-4563-2014.

    Velders et al. note: “If, for example, HFC production were to be phased out in 2020 instead of 2050, not only could about 91–146 GtCO2-eq of cumulative emission be avoided from 2020 to 2050, but an additional bank of about 39–64 GtCO2-eq could also be avoided in 2050.” The totals range from 130 to 210 GtCO2e by 2050.

  220. See: LINK

  221. LINKLINK and LINK

NCE 2015

Seizing
the Global
Opportunity

Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate.

Momentum for a low-carbon economy is building, but much more needs to be done. International partnerships can help catalyse the economic growth and emissions reduction to get us there.

The Global Commission makes  10 key recommendations in which partnerships can help deliver better growth and a better climate.

Chapter zero

Overview

New opportunities and challenges for low-carbon growth and international cooperation

The world is changing before our eyes. As discussed in Better Growth, Better Climate, new patterns of international production and trade, demographic change and technological advances have dramatically altered the shape of the global economy over the last two decades. “Business as usual” is thus no longer an option. Structural change is inevitable – but that change can be steered to make economies at all levels of development stronger, more equitable, more sustainable and more resilient.

Several emerging trends and developments offer new opportunities to accelerate the transition to low-carbon growth and prosperity. In this section we highlight six: rapid innovation and declining costs of clean energy technologies; the fall in oil prices as an opportunity to advance carbon pricing and fossil fuel subsidy reform; growing international attention to infrastructure investment, particularly in the context of low interest rates; heightened awareness of climate risks in the financial sector; rising interest in low-carbon growth pathways in emerging and developing economies; and an acceleration of the decline in the carbon intensity of the global economy.

Chapter one

Cities

Accelerate low-carbon development in the world’s cities

We live in an urban era. Cities are growing at an unprecedented rate, particularly in the developing world, with 1.4 million people added to urban areas each week. By 2030, around 60% of the global population will live in cities. Cities are engines of economic growth and social change, expected to produce about 85% of global GDP in 2015 – and they generate 71–76% of energy-related global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With their dense populations, concentrations of property and infrastructure, and large paved areas, cities are also particularly vulnerable to floods, storm surges and other climate impacts, particularly in coastal regions and along rivers.

All these factors make it crucial to ensure that the infrastructure investments made in cities in the next several years are both low-carbon and climate-resilient. As shown in Better Growth, Better Climate, cities have much to gain from adopting more compact, connected and efficient forms of development: greater economic productivity and appeal to investors, improved air quality and public health, reduced poverty and enhanced safety, and substantial avoided infrastructure and public service costs. For urban leaders, low-carbon strategies are thus as much about building healthier, more liveable and more productive cities as about reducing GHG emissions.

Chapter two

Land Use

Restore and protect agricultural and forest landscapes and increase agricultural productivity

Global demand for agricultural and forestry commodities – food, fuel, fibre and timber – is rising rapidly, primarily in emerging and developing economies. This creates vital opportunities for economic growth, but it also puts pressure on natural resources. With the global population expected to grow by 1.2 billion by 2030 – and the global middle class to roughly double by 2030 – that pressure will only increase. About 70% more food calories will need to be produced by 2050, while demand for wood products will increase three- to fourfold.

Countries face the simultaneous challenges of raising agricultural and forest productivity, preventing deforestation, improving the governance of natural resource use, and strengthening the resilience of land use systems to climate change and other threats. As argued in Better Growth, Better Climate, the linkages between these challenges require a holistic approach. Unless they are addressed together, fixing problems in one area will just shift them to others.

Chapter three

Clean Energy

Invest at least a trillion dollars a year in clean energy

Clean energy investment has grown rapidly in recent years: US$270 billion was invested in renewables in 2014, and at least US$130 billion in energy efficiency. In 2013, for the first time, the world added more low-carbon electricity capacity than fossil fuel capacity. The costs of low-carbon technologies continue to fall, and new finance vehicles are starting to take off: issuances of “green bonds”, for example (which go beyond just clean energy) tripled within a year, to US$36.6 billion in 2014.

The case for large-scale clean energy investment is strong. In the next 15 years, energy demand is projected to grow by 25–35%, as up to 3 billion people enter the global middle class and world economic output doubles. About 1.3 billion people still lack access to electricity, and many more have only partial or unreliable service. But the kind of energy supply the world invests in matters a great deal. Globally, an estimated 3.7 million people die prematurely each year due to ambient air pollution, much of it related to fossil fuel combustion. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use make up about two-thirds of global GHG emissions. For countries dependent on fossil fuels, continued oil price volatility poses significant energy security risks.

Chapter four

Energy Efficiency

Raise energy efficiency standards to the global best

The world’s energy systems have undergone an unprecedented expansion in the last 25 years, with energy demand growing by 50% to fuel an economy that has doubled in size. Efficiency is an essential component of any strategy to deliver affordable, reliable energy systems, with an abundance of opportunities to reduce demand and improve the use of energy resources at a lower cost than equivalent supply-side options. It is thus increasingly referred to as the “first fuel”. It can reduce the need to build new energy production infrastructure and, by reducing energy demand, it plays a key role in curbing GHG emissions from the energy sector.

Greater energy efficiency can benefit countries at all stages of development, but particularly fast-growing economies trying to achieve universal energy access with limited resources. Yet many opportunities go untapped because of misaligned incentives, lack of information and other market failures. This makes energy efficiency standards particularly important. As part of a wider policy package, they can be an effective means of changing consumer and business behaviour, and driving product innovation. International cooperation can amplify the benefits by aligning and gradually raising efficiency standards around the world. Converging towards “global best” standards in key sectors such as appliances and lighting, vehicles, buildings and industrial equipment would unlock energy and cost savings, expand global markets, reduce non-tariff barriers to trade and reduce GHG emissions.

Chapter five

Carbon Pricing

Implement effective carbon pricing

A growing number of countries, sub-national governments and businesses are recognising the value of putting a price on carbon and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. They are cooperating internationally to overcome barriers to these reforms and to accelerate progress.

A strong, predictable and rising carbon price – applied through a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system – is a particularly efficient way to advance climate and fiscal goals. It sends important signals across the economy, helping to guide consumption choices and investments towards low-carbon and away from carbon-intensive activities. It can also raise fiscal revenues for productive uses. About 40 national and over 20 sub-national jurisdictions have now adopted or scheduled a price on carbon, covering an estimated 7 Gt CO2e, or about 12% of annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is triple the coverage a decade ago but is far short of what is required.

Chapter six

Infrastructure

Ensure new infrastructure is climate-smart

Infrastructure is a foundation for economic growth. Robust, efficient power grids, water and sewer systems, transportation systems and communications networks are essential to modern economies and societies. They shape our economies in profound ways, determining whether people drive, walk, cycle or ride public transit, whether we remain dependent on fossil-fuelled power or move towards renewables, and whether heavy downpours cause devastating floods or landslides, or storm water is efficiently channelled out to sea.

Emerging and developing economies face high demand for new infrastructure to support growing populations, increased consumption and new industry, and many also have major maintenance backlogs on existing infrastructure systems. Even in developed economies, much infrastructure is outdated and sometimes decaying due to chronic underinvestment. As Better Growth, Better Climate shows, around US$90 trillion in infrastructure investment is needed by 2030 to achieve global growth expectations. That is equivalent to around US$6 trillion per year, but current annual global investment is estimated at only around US$1.7 trillion. About 60% of the investment needed is in emerging and developing countries.

Chapter seven

Innovation

Galvanise low-carbon innovation

Innovation is a fundamental engine of long-term productivity and growth, and is critical for delivering low-carbon growth in particular. As Better Growth, Better Climate highlights, advances in digitisation, materials science and biotechnology, along with new business models, have the potential to transform markets and dramatically cut resource consumption. For example, it is estimated that “circular economy” models, which minimise resource and energy use and maximise recycling, could add up to US$1 trillion to the global economy by 2025. But while existing technologies, widely applied, could achieve medium-term climate goals, more innovation is needed to support the transition to a 2°C pathway. International cooperation can help accelerate progress and spread the benefits of innovation around the world – particularly to emerging and developing economies.

Important collaborations are already under way. In November 2014, the US-China Clean Energy Research Center was expanded to cover joint research on clean vehicles, building energy efficiency and clean coal. The Low Carbon Technology Partnerships Initiative, a collaborative platform to accelerate diffusion of existing technologies and develop public–private partnerships (PPPs), was launched in May 2015. And since 1995, the International Energy Agency has increased the number of non-IEA members in its energy technology initiatives sevenfold. In agriculture, the Consultative Group for International Agriculture Research (CGIAR) is channelling about US$1 billion per year into RD&D to develop more productive and resilient crop varieties and to test improved agricultural techniques particularly suited to developing countries.[1] Still, there is scope to do much more.

Chapter eight

Business

Drive low-carbon growth through business and investor action

Major businesses generate a large share of global greenhouse gas emissions: nearly 15% come from the largest 500 companies alone. Yet businesses also drive technological innovation and low-carbon economic activity. And while major companies and business associations previously often opposed climate policy – some still do – many now demand it. Most recently, at the Business and Climate Summit in Paris in May, business associations whose networks represent 6.5 million firms called for strong climate action and a new international climate agreement.

Companies are increasingly integrating climate change into their business and investment strategies. Tackling climate change is a huge business opportunity: the global market for low-carbon and environmental goods and services was estimated at US$5.5 trillion in 2011–12, and is growing at over 3% per year. Businesses are developing new products and services to seize this opportunity; identifying and addressing climate risks in their operations and supply chains; and reducing their GHG emissions. This is starting to happen across a variety of sectors, including energy-intensive ones such as cement, chemicals, and iron and steel, where emissions are large and significant reduction poses undeniable challenges.

Chapter nine

Aviation and Maritime

Raise ambition to reduce international aviation and maritime emissions

Global aviation and maritime shipping combined produce about 5% of global CO2 emissions, and by 2050 their share is projected to rise to 10–32%. While domestic aviation and shipping are covered under national policies and emission inventories, emissions from international aviation and shipping, which make up a majority of emissions in each sector, are not. They need to be addressed through internationally coordinated policies, in order to ensure efficiency in these global markets and minimise potential competitiveness impacts.

The UN governing bodies of these sectors, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), have both made efforts to adopt policies for reducing international emissions, for which they are responsible, since they were directed to do so 17 years ago through the Kyoto Protocol. But progress has been very slow. In 2013, the IMO set design efficiency standards for new ships, and ICAO is due to decide in 2016 on the implementation of a market-based measure to control emissions from 2020.

Chapter ten

HFCs

Phasing down the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are the fastest-growing group of greenhouse gases in much of the world, with emissions of major HFCs rising by 10–15% per year. Developed to replace chemicals being phased out under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, they are used as refrigerants in air conditioners and other products, to make insulating foams, and as solvents. They do not harm the ozone layer, but are potent greenhouse gases, with particularly large near-term climate impacts.

Developed countries already include HFCs in national emissions inventories under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). But to catalyse rapid action and mobilise finance, more than 100 countries now support amending the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and use of HFCs with the highest climate impact. Such a phase-down could avoid 1.1–1.7 Gt CO2e of HFC emissions per year by 2030, while driving significant energy efficiency improvements with both economic benefits through energy savings and climate benefits. The Montreal Protocol includes a Multilateral Fund which could help finance HFC phase-down in developing countries.

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  1. Borgmann, M., 2014. Dubai’s DEWA procures the world’s cheapest solar energy ever: Riyadh, start your photocopiers. Apricum GmbH, 27 November. Available at: http://www.apricum-group.com/dubais-dewa-procures-worlds-cheapest-solar-energy-ever-riyadh-start-photocopiers/.

    See also: The Economist, 2015. Renewable Energy: Not a Toy. 11 April. Available at: http://www.economist.com/news/international/21647975-plummeting-prices-are-boosting-renewables-even-subsidies-fall-not-toy.

  2. Van der Hoeven, M., 2015. Opportunity to act: Making smart decisions in a time of low oil prices. International Energy Agency presentation at the Oxford Energy Colloquium. Available at: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/speeches/150127_OxfordEnergyColloquiumspeech.pdf.

  3. Quandl, n.d. Natural Gas Prices and Charts. Available at: https://www.quandl.com/c/markets/natural-gas [accessed 24 April 2015].

  4. IRENA, 2015. Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014. International Renewable Energy Agency, Masdar City. Available at: http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Power_Costs_2014_report.pdf.

  5. McCrone, A., Moslener, U., Usher, E., Grüning, C. and Sonntag-O’Brien, V. (eds.), 2015. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015. Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance, United Nations Environment Programme, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Available at: http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2015.

  6. Tesla Motors, 2015. Tesla Energy press kit. 30 April. Available at: http://www.teslamotors.com/presskit/teslaenergy.

    See also: Naam, R., 2015. Why energy storage is about to get big – and cheap. Blog post, 14 April. Available at: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-big-and-cheap/.

  7. Smith, N., 2015. Clean Energy Revolution is Ahead of Schedule. Bloomberg View, 8 April. Available at: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-08/clean-energy-revolution-is-way-ahead-of-schedule.

  8. McCrone et al., 2015. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015.

  9. Shearer, C., Ghio, N., Myllyvirta. L., and Nace, T., 2015. Boom and Bust: Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline. Sierra Club. Available at: http://action.sierraclub.org/site/DocServer/Coal_Tracker_report_final_3-9-15.pdf?docID=17381.

  10. McCrone et al., 2015. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015.

    IEA, 2014. World Energy Outlook 2014. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/ content/book/weo-2014-en.

  11. Liebreich, M., 2015. State of the Industry Keynote. Presented at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Annual Summit, New York, 14 April. Available at: http://about.bnef.com/presentations/liebreich-state-industry-keynote/.

  12. Baffes, J., Kose, M.A., Ohnsorge, F. and Stocker, M., 2015. The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses. World Bank Group, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Research/PRN01_Mar2015_Oil_Prices.pdf.

  13. Blanchard, O., and Arezki, R, 2014. Seven Questions About the Recent Oil Price Slump. iMFdirect – The IMF Blog. International Monetary Fund, 22 December. Available at: http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2014/12/22/seven-questions-about-the-recent-oil-price-slump/.

  14. Klevnäs, P., Stern, N. and Frejova, J., 2015. Oil Prices and the New Climate Economy. New Climate Economy briefing paper. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate and Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Available at: http://nce.habitatseven.work/misc/working-papers/.

  15. FRED Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Database

  16. Ibid.

  17. One estimate finds fossil fuel subsidies to have contributed a staggering 36% of global CO2 emissions in 1980–2010. See Stefanski, R., 2014. Dirty Little Secrets: Inferring Fossil-Fuel Subsidies from Patterns in Emission Intensities. Laval University and University of Oxford, April 2014. Available at: http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/files/OxCarreRP2014134%281%29.pdf.On health impacts of outdoor air pollution, see WHO, 2014. Ambient (outdoor) Air Quality and Health. Fact Sheet No. 313. World Health Organization, Geneva. Available at: http://www.who.int/ mediacentre/factsheets/fs313/en/.

  18. The World Bank, 2015. Carbon Pricing Watch 2015: An Advance Brief from the State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015 Report, to Be Released Late 2015. Washington, DC. Available at: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/05/24528977/carbon-pricing-watch-2015-advance-brief-state-trends-carbon-pricing-2015-report-released-late-2015.

  19. The World Bank and Ecofys, 2014. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2014. World Bank Group, Washington, DC. Available at: http://documents. worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/05/19572833/state-trends-carbon-pricing-2014. Updated in August 2014 for the New Climate Economy project, to reflect the removal of the Australian carbon pricing mechanism on 1 July 2014.

  20. IEA, 2014, World Energy Outlook 2014.

  21. del Granado, A.J., Coady, D., and Gillingham, R., 2010. The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. , Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10202.pdf.

  22. del Granado, A.J., Coady, D., and Gillingham, R., 2010. The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. , Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10202.pdf.

  23. See: https://g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/g20_note_global_infrastructure_initiative_hub.pdf.

  24. See: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/10/09/world-bank-group-launches-new-global-infrastructure-facility

  25. See: http://www.aiibank.org.

  26. See: VI Brics Summit, 2014. Agreement on the New Development Bank. Fortaleza, Brazil, 15 July. Available at: http://brics6.itamaraty.gov.br/media2/press-releases/219-agreement-on-the-new-development-bank-fortaleza-july-15.

  27. Swiss Re, 2014. Infrastructure Investing. It Matters. Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd, , Zurich. Available at http://media.swissre.com/documents/Infrastructure_Investment_IIF.pdf.

    OECD, 2015. Mapping Channels to Mobilise Institutional Investment in Sustainable Energy. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264224582-en.

    OECD, 2015. Policy Guidance for Investment in Clean Energy Infrastructure: Expanding Access to Clean Energy for Green Growth and Development. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264212664-en.

  28. Bhattacharya, A., Oppenheim, J. and Stern, N., 2015 (forthcoming). Driving Better Growth through Better Infrastructure: Key Elements of a Transformation Program. New Climate Economy Working Paper. To be available at: http://nce.habitatseven.work/misc/working-papers/.

  29. Blanchard, O., Furceri, D. and Pescatori, A., 2014. Chapter 8: A prolonged period of low, real interest rates? In Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. Teulings, C., and Baldwin, R. (eds). VoxEU and Centre for Economic Policy Research. Available at: http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/Vox_secular_stagnation.pdf.

    See also the book’s introduction, by C. Teulings and R. Baldwin.

  30. IMF, 2014. World Economic Outlook April 2014: Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www. imf.org/external/Pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/.

    Calderon, C., and Serven, L., 2014. Infrastructure, Growth and Inequality: An Overview. World Bank Group, Washington, DC. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20365.

  31. Placeholder

  32. Bhattacharya et al., 2015 (forthcoming). Driving Better Growth through Better Infrastructure.

  33. Dabla-Norris, E., Brumby, J., Kyobe, J., Mills, Z., and Papageorgiou, C. 2012. Investing in Public Investment: An Index of Public Investment Efficiency. Journal of Economic Growth, 17 (3). 235–266. DOI: 10.1007/s10887-012-9078-5.

    Gupta, S., Kangur, A., Papageorgiou, C., and Wane, A., 2014. Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11217.pdf.

    Rajaram, A., Kaiser, K., Le, T.M., Kim, J-H., and Frank, J., 2014. The Power of Public Investment Management: Transforming Resources into Assets for Growth. World Bank Group, Washington, DC. Available at: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20268592/power-public-investment-management-transforming-resources-assets-growth.

  34. See UN Climate Summit, 2014. Resilience: Integrating Risks into the Financial System: The 1-in-100 Initiative Action Statement. Available at: http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/09/RESILIENCE-1-in-100-initiative.pdf.

    Willis, 2014. Willis-Led Disaster Resilience Initiative Receives United Nations Endorsement. Press release, 28 November. Available at: http://investors.willis.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=129857&p=irol-newsArticle&id=1993789.

  35. UNEP. 2015. The Coming Financial Climate: The Inquiry’s 4th Progress Report. Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System: Policy Innovations for a Green Economy. United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva. Available at: http://www.unep.org/inquiry/Portals/50215/Documents/ES_English.pdf.

  36. Ibid.

  37. G20, 2015. Communiqué: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting. Available at: https://g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/April-G20-FMCBG-Communique-Final.pdf.

  38. BP, 2015. Annual General Meeting. Available at: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/annual-general-meeting.html.

    Shell, 2015. 2015 Annual General Meeting. Available at: http://www.shell.com/global/aboutshell/investor/shareholder-information/agm/2015.html.

  39. Ceres, 2015. Investors push SEC to require stronger climate risk disclosure by fossil fuel companies. Press release, 17 April. Available at: http://www.ceres.org/press/press-releases/investors-push-sec-to-require-stronger-climate-risk-disclosure-by-fossil-fuel-companies.

  40. For a full list, see: http://gofossilfree.org/commitments/.

  41. Ministry of Finance of Norway, 2015. New Climate Criterion for the Exclusion of Companies from the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG). Press release, 10 April. Available at: https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/nytt-klimakriterium-for-utelukkelse-av-selskaper/id2405205/.

  42. See: http://www.unep.org/inquiry.

  43. Zhang, C., Zadek, S., Chen, N., and Halle, M., 2015. Greening China’s Financial System: Synthesis Report. International Institute for Sustainable Development and China Development Research Center. Available at: https://www.iisd.org/publications/greening-chinas-financial-system.

  44. Zuckerman, J., Nelson, D. and Frejova, J., 2015. Chapter 3: Clean Energy Finance. In International Cooperation in the New Climate Economy: Accelerating Growth and Climate Action, 2015. New Climate Economy.

  45. Bank of America, 2014. Bank of America Announces $10 Billion Catalytic Finance Initiative to Accelerate Clean Energy Investments that Reduce Carbon Emissions. Press release, 23 September. Available at : http://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/press-releases/corporate-and-investment-banking-sales-and-trading-treasury-services/bank-america-ann. Citi, n.d. Environmental Finance. Available at: http://www.citigroup.com/citi/environment/opportunities.htm [accessed 4 June, 2015].

  46. The World Bank, 2012. Inclusive Green Growth: The Pathway to Sustainable Development. Washington, DC. Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSDNET/Resources/Inclusive_Green_Growth_May_2012.pdf.

    See also: Green Growth Knowledge Platform: http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org.

    Green Growth Best Practice Network, 2014. Green Growth in Practice: Lessons from Country Experiences. Available at: http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/resource/green-growth-practice-lessons-country-experiences.

  47. Government of Rwanda, 2011. Green Growth and Climate Resilience: National Strategy for Climate Change and Low Carbon Development. Kigali. Available at http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Rwanda-Green-Growth-Strategy-FINAL1.pdf

  48. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2011. Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy. Available at: http://www.undp.org/content/dam/ethiopia/docs/Ethiopia%20CRGE.pdf. Ethiopia’s New Climate Economy Partnership, n.d. Unlocking the Power of Ethiopia’s Cities. Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) and the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI). Available at: http://static.newclimateeconomy.report/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Unlocking-the-Power-of-Cities-in-Ethiopia.pdf

  49. Africa Progress Panel, 2015. Power, People, Planet: Seizing Africa’s Energy and Climate Opportunities. Africa Progress Report 2015. Geneva Available at: http://www.africaprogresspanel.org/publications/policy-papers/2015-africa-progress-report/.

  50. Ibid.

  51. Cheung, R., Delio, E., Lall, S., Bairiganjan, S., Fuente, D. and Singh, S., 2010. Power to the People: Investing in Clean Energy for the Base of the Pyramid in India. Centre for Development Finance, Institute for Financial Management & Research, and World Resources Institute, Chennai, India. Available at: http://www.wri.org/publication/power-people.

  52. BP, 2015. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2015. Available at: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.

    Green, F., and Stern, N., 2015. China’s “New Normal”: Structural Change, Better Growth, and Peak Emissions. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Chinas_new_normal_green_stern_June_2015.pdf.

  53. IRENA, 2015. Renewable Energy Capacity Statistics 2015. International Renewable Energy Agency, Masdar City. Available at: http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2015.pdf.

  54. China Dialogue, 2011. China’s Green Revolution: Energy, Environment and the 12th Five-Year Plan. Beijing. Available at: https://www.chinadialogue.net/UserFiles/File/PDF_ebook001.pdf.

  55. The Green Growth Knowledge Platform (http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/), the Low Emissions Development Global Partnership (http://ledsgp.org/about/how), the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (http://cdkn.org) and the Global Green Growth Institute (http://www.gggi.org) are among initiatives providing resources for learning and dissemination of best practice in low-carbon development and growth strategies.

  56. IEA, 2015. World Energy Outlook 2015 Special Report on Energy and Climate Change. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org.

  57. IEA, 2015. World Energy Outlook 2015 Special Report on Energy and Climate Change.

  58. Bloomberg Business, 2015. China Carbon Emissions Decline as 2014 Global CO2 Stays Flat. 13 March. Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/china-s-carbon-emissions-drop-for-the-first-time-since-2001.

  59. IEA, 2015. Energy Technology Perspectives 2015 – Mobilising Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/etp/etp2015/.

    The energy intensity of GDP provides a rough index of the efficiency of energy use, although it also reflects a variety of other influences such as structural change in the economy. The carbon intensity of energy mainly reflects the proportion of fossil fuels in the overall energy fuel mix.

  60. Data sources for Table 1 are:The World Bank, n.d. GDP growth. World Development Indicators. Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG.IEA, 2014. World Energy Balances 2014. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/statistics/topics/energybalances/.Global Carbon Project, 2014. Carbon Budget 2014: A Global Update of the Carbon Budget and Trends. Available at: http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/.BP, 2014. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014. London. Available at: http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview.Where data are incomplete, NCE staff have made calculations and estimates. Growth rates are estimated by regression of log variables on a linear time trend.

  61. See: WTO, 2015. Modest trade recovery to continue in 2015 and 2016 following three years of weak expansion. World Trade Organization press release, 14 April. Available at: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres15_e/pr739_e.htm.

  62. See, e.g.: Inman, P., 2015. World Bank’s Jim Kim global slowdown harm anti-poverty drive. The Guardian, 16 April. Business. Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/16/world-banks-jim-kim-warns-global-slowdown-will-harm-anti-poverty-drive.

  63. The World Bank, 2015. Poverty Overview. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview. [Last updated 6 April 2015.]

  64. Evidence in this paragraph summarized in Miren Gutierrez, Will McFarland and Lano Fonua, 2014. Zero poverty … think again. Impact of climate change on development efforts. Overseas Development Institute (available at http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/8863.pdf), and in Ilmi Granoff, Jason Eis, Chris Hoy, Charlene Watson, Amina Khan and Natasha Grist, 2014. Targeting Zero-Zero. Achieving zero extreme poverty on the path to zero net emissions. Overseas Development Institute (available at: http://www.developmentprogress.org/sites/developmentprogress.org/files/case-study-report/zero_zero_discussion_paper_full.pdf).

  65. Global Environmental Facility, n.d. Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change for the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF). Available at: https://www.thegef.org/gef/sites/thegef.org/files/publication/GEF-ADAPTION%20STRATEGIES.pdf.

    UNDP, 2010.Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives: A UNDP Toolkit for Practitioners. Available at: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/951013_Toolkit%20for%20Designing%20Climate%20Change%20Adaptation%20Initiatives.pdf.

    World Bank, n.d. World Bank Climate Change Adaptation Note Series. Available at: http://www.seachangecop.org/taxonomy/term/623.

  66. Fay, M. Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schlib, A., Rozenberg, J., Narloch, U., and Kerr, T., 2015. Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future. The World Bank, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/Climate/dd/decarbonizing-development-report.pdf.

    OECD, IEA, ITF and NEA, 2015. Aligning Policies for a Low-Carbon Economy. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, International Energy Agency, Nuclear Energy Agency, and International Transport Forum, Paris. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/environment/aligning-policies-for-a-low-carbon-economy-9789264233294-en.htm.

  67. OECD, IEA, ITF and NEA, 2015. Aligning Policies for a Low-Carbon Economy.

  68. ITUC, 2009. What’s Just Transition? International Trade Union Confederation, Brussels. Available: http://www.ituc-csi.org/IMG/pdf/01-Depliant-Transition5.pdf.

    ITUC, 2015. Frontlines Briefing – Climate Justice: Unions4Climate Action. International Trade Union Confederation, Brussels. Available at: http://www.ituc-csi.org/IMG/pdf/ituc_frontlines_climate_change_report_may_en.pdf.

  69. MarketsandMarkets, 2015. Solar Power Market by PV, CSP Technologies by Installations, Price, Cost, Trade Trends & Global Forecasts (2011-2016). Dallas, TX. Available at: http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/solar-energy.asp.

  70. See: The White House, 2014. Promoting Green Goods Trade to Address Climate Change. The White House Blog, 24 January. Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/01/24/promoting-green-goods-trade-address-climate-change. See also Chapter 8 in Better Growth, Better Climate.

  71. See Chapter 8 in Better Growth, Better Climate.

  72. OECD, 2013. “OECD Policy Guidance for Investment in Clean Energy Infrastructure: Expanding Access to Clean Energy for Green Growth and Development”; OECD (2015), Overcoming Barriers to International Investment in Clean Energy, OECD, Paris.

  73. Important questions remain to be resolved about what kinds of finance should count towards the US$100 billion commitment, particularly what can legitimately be counted as “mobilised” by developed countries. See, e.g., Bodnar, P., Brown, J., and Nakhooda, S., 2015 (forthcoming). What Counts? Tools to Help Define the $100 Billion Commitment. Climate Policy Initiative, Overseas Development Institute and World Resources Institute.

    See also the Standing Committee on Finance, 2014. 2014 Biennial Assessment and Overview of Climate Finance Flows Report. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Available at: http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/standing_committee/items/8034.php.

    Westphal, M., Canfin, P., Ballesteros, A., and Morgan, J., 2015. Getting to $100 Billion: Climate Finance Scenarios and Projections to 2020. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.wri.org/publication/getting-100-billion-climate-finance-scenarios-and-projections-2020.

  74. Westphal, M., Canfin, P., Ballesteros, A., and Morgan, J., 2015. Getting to $100 Billion: Climate Finance Scenarios and Projections to 2020. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.wri.org/publication/getting-100-billion-climate-finance-scenarios-and-projections-2020.

  75. See the proposal for an “integrated roadmap to finance the low-carbon economy” set out in the report of the “Hollande Commission”: Canfin, P., and Grandjean, A., 2015. Mobilizing Climate Finance: A Roadmap to Finance a Low-Carbon Economy. Government of France, Paris.

  76. See Chapter 8 in Better Growth, Better Climate.

  77. For a list of INDCs (and the full documents), see: http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx.

  78. An assessment of the degree of effort of published INDCs is given at Climate Action Tracker, n.d. Tracking INDCs. Available at: http://climateactiontracker.org/.

  79. Belenky, M., n.d.. Paris Analysis: Mind the Gap. Climate Advisers. Available at: http://www.climateadvisers.com/mindthegap/ [accessed 4 June 2015]. See also Climate Action Tracker: http://climateactiontracker.org.

    2010 emissions estimate is from IPCC, 2014. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/.

  80. New Climate Economy. 2015. “Estimates of Emissions Reduction Potential for the 2015 Report: Technical Note.” A technical note for Seizing the Global Opportunity: Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate. Available at: http://nce.habitatseven.work/misc/working-papers.

    The estimates for the emissions reduction potential of the actions proposed in this report are from a “business as usual” baseline in which no climate action is taken after 2010. They therefore include the potential of some actions already being taken or planned, as well as those recommended in the report. (In many cases it is not yet clear what the precise impact of actions already being taken or planned will be; hence it is difficult to calculate the “additional” impact of stronger action.)

    The estimates made for this report are mostly ranges to allow for various uncertainties, with the median values expressed in Figure 4. The emissions potential of the actions in each area have been estimated individually; when added together the overlaps between them have been subtracted, using conservative assumptions.

    The baseline is taken from modelling scenarios reviewed by the IPCC and analysed in: UNEP, 2014. The Emissions Gap Report 2014. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Available at: http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2014/. That report estimates the median level of emissions in 2030 as 69 Gt CO2e.

    Also using IPCC modelling scenarios, the UNEP report identifies 42 Gt CO2e as the median of the emissions range (30–44 Gt CO2e) required in 2030 for a 50–66% likelihood of holding the rise in average global temperature to 2°C. This is also used in this report. The difference between the baseline of 69 Gt CO2e and the “required level” of 42 Gt CO2e gives a gross “emissions gap” in 2030 (before any action is taken) of 27 Gt CO2e.

    The actions proposed in this report are estimated to have an aggregate emissions reduction potential in 2030 of 15–26 Gt CO2e once the overlaps between them have been subtracted. This represents 59–96% of the gross emissions gap. A full description of the methodology used to estimate the emissions reduction potential in this report is published at http://static.newclimateeconomy.report/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/estimates-of-emissions-reduction-potential-for-the-2015-report.pdf.

  81. The principle of “no backsliding”, which was agreed at the Lima Climate Change Conference in December 2014, is important. Countries should be allowed to raise the ambition of their INDCs, but not to weaken them.

  82. See the UNFCCC listing of INDCs: http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx.

  83. For a list and survey, see Harrison, N., Bartlett, N., Höhne, N., Braun, N., Day, T., Deng, Y., and Dixson-Declève, S., 2014. Enhancing Ambition through International Cooperative Initiatives. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, Available at: http://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:713496/FULLTEXT01.pdf.

    See also the Climate Initiatives Platform: http://climateinitiativesplatform.org.

  84. See: http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/.

    For an analysis of these initiatives, see: Hsu, A., Moffat, A. S., Weinfurter, A. J. and Schwartz, J. D., 2015. Towards a new climate diplomacy. Nature Climate Change, 5(6). 501–503. DOI:10.1038/nclimate2594.

  85. COP20/CMP10 Presidency, 2015. Lima – Paris Action Agenda Statement. Press release, 14 January. Available at: http://www.cop20.pe/en/18732/comunicado-sobre-la-agenda-de-accion-lima-paris/.

  86. See http://climateaction.unfccc.int and http://climateinitiativesplatform.org.

  87. See: http://www.ghgprotocol.org.

  88. See: http://static.newclimateeconomy.report/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/estimates-of-emissions-reduction-potential-for-the-2015-report.pdf

  89. See detailed explanation in note 79 above.

  90. New Climate Economy analysis. For further information and analysis supporting this figure, please see Estimates of Emissions Reduction Potential for the 2015 Report: Technical Note. Available at: http://nce.habitatseven.work/misc/working-papers

  91. United Nations, 2014. World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/. For detailed data, see: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/CD-ROM/Default.aspx.

  92. New Climate Economy analysis based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Cities, 2015. See Floater, G., Rode, P., Robert, A., Kennedy, C., Hoornweg, D., Slavcheva, R. and Godfrey, N., 2014. Cities and the New Climate Economy: the Transformative Role of Global Urban Growth. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015/misc/working-papers/.

  93. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that in 2010, urban areas accounted for 67–76% of global energy use and 71–76% of global CO2 emissions from final energy use. See: Seto, K. C. and Dhakal, S., 2014. Chapter 12: Human settlements, infrastructure, and spatial planning. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/.

  94. C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, Arup, Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), World Resources Institute (WRI), UN Habitat, UN Special Envoy, United Cities and Local Governments (UCLG), carbonn Climate Registry and CDP, 2014. Global Aggregation of City Climate Commitments. Available at: http://publications.arup.com/Publications/G/Global_Aggregation_of_City_Climate_Commitments.aspx.

  95. See: http://www.compactofmayors.org.

  96. The Compact of States and Regions was formed in 2014, bringing together the separate associations of the Climate Group States & Regions Network, R20 and nrg4SD. See http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/programs/compact-of-states-and-regions/.

  97. We present only a very brief summary of the analysis here. For a detailed description, including assumptions, see Gouldson, A., Colenbrander, S., Godfrey, N., Sudmant, A. and Zhao, X. 2015. Accelerating Low-Carbon Development in the World’s Cities. A New Climate Economy contributing paper for Seizing the Global Opportunity: Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015/misc/working-papers.

  98. See: Erickson, P. and Tempest, K., 2014. Advancing Climate Ambition: Cities as Partners in Global Climate Action. Produced by SEI in support of the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Cities and Climate Change and C40. Stockholm Environment Institute, Seattle, WA, US. Available at: http://sei-international.org/publications?pid=2577.

    For a more detailed discussion, see: Erickson, P. and Tempest, K., 2014. Advancing Climate Ambition: How City-Scale Actions Can Contribute to Global Climate Goals. SEI Working Paper No. 2014-06. Stockholm Environment Institute, Seattle, WA, US. Available at: http://sei-international.org/publications?pid=2582.

  99. Based on data from Erickson and Tempest, 2014. Advancing Climate Ambition.

  100. Business-as-usual or baseline energy intensities, energy use and activity levels are based on the 4DS scenario in:

    IEA, 2014. Energy Technology Perspectives 2014: Harnessing Electricity’s Potential. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/etp/.

    IEA, 2012. Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Pathways to a Clean Energy System. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/etp/publications/etp2012.

    Estimates of energy savings and mitigation potential are drawn from Erickson and Tempest, 2014, who base their estimate on scenarios developed by the IEA, the Global Buildings Performance Network, and the International Council on Clean Transportation.

    Data on incremental investment needs for transport sector are drawn from the IEA’s cost database for energy efficiency; see: IEA, 2014. World Energy Investment Outlook 2014. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/world-energy-investment-outlook—special-report—.html.

    Capital, operating and maintenance costs of public transport are drawn from Dulac, J., 2013. Global Land Transport Infrastructure Requirements: Estimating Road and Railway Infrastructure and Capacity Costs to 2050. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/global-land-transport-infrastructure-requirements.html.

    Cost data for the buildings sector are drawn from: Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Reith, A., Korytárová, K., Egyed M., and Dollenstein J., 2015. Monetary Benefits of Ambitious Building Energy Policies. Research report prepared by Advanced Building and Urban Design for the Global Building Performance Network (GBPN). Available at: http://www.gbpn.org/reports/monetary-benefits-ambitious-building-energy-policies.

    Cost data for the waste sector are drawn from: WEC and BNEF, 2013. World Energy Perspective: Cost of Energy Technologies. World Energy Council and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Available at: http://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/WEC_J1143_CostofTECHNOLOGIES_021013_WEB_Final.pdf.

    Full details of the data sources, methods and assumptions behind the analysis, and a comparison with other estimates, are presented in Gouldson et al., 2015, Accelerating Low-Carbon Development in the World’s Cities.

  101. Under the “low”, “medium” and “high” scenarios, the real discount rates used are 1.4%, 3% and 5%, and the increases in real energy prices are 1%, 2.5% and 4%. Learning rates are sector- and technology-specific.

  102. Gouldson et al., 2015. Accelerating Low-Carbon Development in the World’s Cities.

  103. WHO, 2015. Road Traffic Injuries: Fact sheet 358. World Health Organization. Available at http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs358/en/.

  104. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. New Climate Economy Technical Note: Infrastructure Investment Needs of a Low-Carbon Scenario. Supporting paper for the New Climate Economy. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015/misc/working-papers/.

  105. Zhang, M., 2009. Bus versus rail: Meta-analysis of cost characteristics, carrying capacities, and land use impacts. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2110. 87–95. DOI:10.3141/2110-11.

  106. Pucher, J. and Buehler, R., 2008. Making cycling irresistible: Lessons from The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany. Transport Reviews, 28(4). 495–528. DOI:10.1080/01441640701806612.

    Mahendra, A., Conti, V., Pai, M. and Rajagopalan L., 2014. Integrating Health Benefit into Transportation Planning in Ppolicy in India. World Resources Institute and EMBARQ. Available at: http://www.wricities.org/sites/default/files/Health-Impact-Assessments-Transport-EMBARQ-India-4.pdf.

  107. Pucher, J. and Buehler, R., 2012. City Cycling. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Cambridge, USA. 1–2. Available at: http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/city-cycling-0.

  108. The World Bank, 2013. Planning and Financing Low-Carbon, Livable Cities. Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/09/25/planning-financing-low-carbon-cities.

  109. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2015. Governing the City. Paris. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264226500-en.

  110. The World Bank, 2013. Financing Sustainable Cities: How We’re Helping Africa’s Cities Raise Their Credit Ratings. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/10/24/financing-sustainable-cities-africa-creditworthy.

  111. Based on an average cost of technical assistance of US$2 million per city. NCE estimates based on consultation with a range of city-focused institutions.

  112. We present only a very brief summary of the analysis here. For a detailed description, including assumptions, see Gouldson et al., 2015. Accelerating Low-Carbon Development in the World’s Cities.

  113. Based on the assumption that technical assistance would represent 2.5-5% of total project costs after leveraged investments. NCE estimates based on consultation with a range of city-focused institutions.

  114. We assume the population growth rate to 2040 to be 0.86% per year, following the UN’s medium-variant estimate to 2050. Similarly, the urban population is projected to grow about 1.6% per year over this period, and this can be used as a proxy for growth of the middle class to a lower bound of 3 billion. An upper bound is derived from an OECD estimate of 4.9 billion middle-class people in 2030. The central tendency of 4 billion seems reasonable, recognising the uncertainties in predicting global household income distribution patterns 15 years in advance.

    See: United Nations, 2012. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York. Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/..

    For the OECD estimate, see: Pezzini, M., 2012. An emerging middle class. OECD Yearbook 2012. Available at: http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html

  115. Searchinger, T., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Lipinski, B., Waite, R., Winterbottom, R., Dinshaw, A., and Heimlich, R., 2013. Creating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Sustainably Feed More than 9 Billion People by 2050. World Resources Report 2013–14: Interim Findings. World Resources Institute, the World Bank, United Nations Environment Programme, and United Nations Development Programme, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.wri.org/publication/creating-sustainable-food-future-interim-findings.

    Elias, P. and Boucher, D., 2014. Planting for the Future: How demand for wood products could be friendly to tropical forests. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA. October. Available at: http://newgenerationplantations.org/multimedia/file/9f447ff6-5935-11e4-a16a-005056986313.

    WWF, 2012. Chapter 4: Forests and Wood Products. In WWF Living Forest Report. Washington, DC. Available at: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/deforestation/forest_publications_news_and_reports/living_forests_report/. 

  116. FAO, 2011. The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW) – Managing Systems at Risk. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/solaw/

  117. UNCCD, 2012. Some Global Facts & Figures. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification Available at: http://www.unccd.int/en/programmes/Event-and-campaigns/WDCD/Documents/DLDD%20Facts.pdf

  118. FAO, n.d. Land degradation assessment. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/land/degradation/en/ [accessed 4 June 2015]. 

  119. FAO, 2010. Global Forest Resources Assessments 2010. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Available at: www.fao.org/forestry/fra/en

  120. Minnemeyer, S., Laestadius, L., Sizer, N., Saint-Laurent, C., and Potapov, P., 2011. A World of Opportunity. Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration. Available at: http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/world_of_opportunity_brochure_2011-09.pdf

  121. The Prince’s Charities International Sustainability Unit, 2015. Tropical Forests: A Review. London. Available at: http://www.pcfisu.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Princes-Charities-International-Sustainability-Unit-Tropical-Forests-A-Review.pdf

  122. FAO, n.d. Composition of agricultural area 1962–2012. FAO Stats. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Available at: http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/browse/R/RL/E [accessed 14 August 2014]. 

  123. Lawson, S., 2014. Consumer Goods and Deforestation: An Analysis of the Extent and Nature of Illegality in Forest Conversion for Agriculture and Timber Plantations. Forest Trends, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.forest-trends.org/documents/files/doc_4718.pdf

  124. Houghton, R. A., 2013. The emissions of carbon from deforestation and degradation in the tropics: past trends and future potential. Carbon Management, 4(5). 539–546. DOI:10.4155/cmt.13.41. 

  125. The per hectare estimates are from: TEEB, 2010. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity Ecological and Economic Foundations. R. Kumar, ed. Earthscan, London and Washington. Available at: http://www.teebweb.org/publication/the-economics-of-ecosystems-and-biodiversity-teeb-ecological-and-economic-foundations.

    Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Sutton, P., van der Ploeg, S., Anderson, S.J., Kubiszewski, I., Farber, S. and Turner, R.K., 2014. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change, 26. 152–158. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002.

    The International Resource Panel Report (in conjunction with UN REDD+). Available at http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/Publications/BuildingNaturalCapitalHowREDD/tabid/132320/Default.aspx

  126. See: http://www.un-redd.org/portals/15/documents/ForestsDeclarationText.pdf. The New York Declaration built on the Bonn Challenge of 2011, in which governments had pledged to put 150 million ha of forest into restoration by 2020. As of May 2015, 11 countries had made commitments covering 59.2 million ha. See: http://www.bonnchallenge.org.

    Forest landscape restoration means re-growing whole forests on a large scale, but very often will involve reforesting tracts of land such as steep slopes, the tops of hills, and river borders within a broader “mosaic landscape”, in addition to agroforestry. See: Wolosin, M. 2014. Quantifying the Benefits of the New York Declaration on Forests. Climate Advisers. Available at: http://www.climateadvisers.com/quantifying-the-benefits-of-the-new-york-declaration-on-forests

  127. The Netherlands played a key leadership role in the development of climate-smart agriculture between 2011 and 2014. See: https://www.wageningenur.nl/en/Dossiers/file/Dossier-Climate-Smart-Agriculture.htm

  128. See: http://www.cgiar.org and http://www.globalresearchalliance.org. 

  129. Ouya, D., 2014. A new alliance to spread climate smart agriculture among millions of smallholder farmers in Africa. Agroforestry World Blog, 8 December. Available at: http://blog.worldagroforestry.org/index.php/2014/12/08/a-new-alliance-to-spread-climate-smart-agriculture-among-millions-of-smallholder-farmers-in-africa/

  130. The global nature of supply chain commitments is critical to ensuring that forest loss and ecosystem destruction is reduced rather than simply displaced. For example, there is evidence that traders in the EU have successfully eliminated Amazon deforestation from their soy supply in part by substituting soy produced on newly cleared land in the neighbouring Cerrado.

    See: Godar, J., Persson, U.M., Tizado, E.J. and Meyfroidt, P., 2015. Towards more accurate and policy relevant footprint analyses: Tracing fine-scale socio-environmental impacts of production to consumption. Ecological Economics, 112, 25–35. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.02.003. 

  131. Consumer Goods Forum, n.d. Board Resolution on Deforestation. Available at: http://www.theconsumergoodsforum.com/strategic-focus/sustainability/board-resolution-on-deforestation [accessed 18 May 2015]. 

  132. See: http://www.tfa2020.com. 

  133. See: World Economic Forum, 2015. World Economic Forum to Host Tropical Forest Alliance 2020 Secretariat. Press release, 23 January. Available at: http://www.weforum.org/news/world-economic-forum-host-tropical-forest-alliance-2020-secretariat. 

  134. FAO, 2011. The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture.

    A net 260 million ha of forest were eliminated in Africa, Asia, Central and South America combined between 1990 and 2012; a net 10 million ha of forest were added in Europe and North America combined. See: http://faostat3.fao.org/download/G2/GF/E

  135. Parker, C., Cranford, M., Oakes, N. and Leggett, M. (eds.), 2012. The Little Biodiversity Finance Book. Global Canopy Programme, Oxford. Available at: http://www.globalcanopy.org/sites/default/files/LittleBiodiversityFinanceBook_3rd%20edition.pdf. This citation gives estimates of “biodiversity finance”, but this is taken as a good indicator of both conservation and landscape restoration finance. 

  136. Credit Suisse, WWF, and McKinsey & Co., 2014. Conservation Finance: Moving beyond donor funding toward an investor-driven approach. Available at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/cc/docs/responsibility/conservation-finance-en.pdf

  137. Lowder, S., Carisma, B. and Skoet, J. 2012. Who invests in agriculture and how much?: An empirical review of the relative size of various investments in agriculture in low- and middle-income countries . FAO, Rome. ESA Working paper No. 12-09. Available at:   http://www.fao.org/3/a-ap854e.pdf.  

  138. The Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN) is a non-profit organisation dedicated to increasing the effectiveness of impact investing; its website contains useful definitions and a large amount of relevant information. See: http://www.thegiin.org/cgi-bin/iowa/aboutus/index.html.

    A sense of the culture and dynamic of impact investing is also found at: Clark, C., Emerson, J. and Thornley, B., 2012. The Impact Investor: People & Practices Delivering Exceptional Financial & Social Returns. Special Report. Insight at Pacific Community Ventures, Duke Case Center for the Advancement of Social Entrepreneurship, and Impact Assets. San Francisco. Available at: http://www.pacificcommunityventures.org/uploads/reports-and-publications/The_Six_Dynamics_of_Impact_Investing_October_2012_PCV_CASE_at_Duke_ImpactAssets.pdf

  139. From a limited sample of 51 private impact funds. See: NatureVest (an initiative of The Nature Conservancy) and EKO Asset Management Partners, 2014. Investing in Conservation: A landscape assessment of an emerging market. Available at: http://www.naturevesttnc.org/Reports/info.html. The NatureVest survey was path-breaking, but by its own account skewed to investors based in North America. 

  140. Institutional or philanthropic investors such as those seeking to reduce poverty or mitigate GHG emissions would typically provide first-loss equity, start-up capital and capacity-building. Impact investors would provide preferred equity, and private institutional investors more generally would provide protected debt equity. Publicly funded institutional investors may be able to leverage private capital on a multiple of 4 to 5 for even smallholder investments basis by accepting as low as a 20–25% first loss for being the junior equity partner in a stacked capital deal. This implies that the first 20–25% of overall losses are absorbed by the first-loss investors, with a real chance that they will lose all their money before any of the other investors need to share in the loss. The preferred equity investor is next in line for losses and right behind debt investors for benefits. The debt investor is paid first and is last in line to lose its stake, but has a fixed and generally lower return. 

  141. UN-REDD Programme, 2010. Frequently Asked Questions and Answers–The UN-REDD Programme and REDD+. Available at: http://www.unep.org/forests/Portals/142/docs/UN-REDD%20FAQs%20[11.10].pdf

  142. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) Dashboard. 30 April 2015. Available at: http://forestcarbonpartnership.org/sites/fcp/files/2015/May/FCPF%20Readiness%20Progress__051515.pdf

  143. Höhne, N., Bals, C., Röser, F., Weischer, L., Hagemann, M., El Alaoui, A., Eckstein, D., Thomä, J. and Rossé, M., 2015. Developing Criteria to Align Investments with 2°C Compatible Pathways. Prepared for the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA). NewClimate Institute, Germanwatch and 2° Investing Initiative. Available at: http://newclimate.org/2015/06/09/developing-criteria-to-align-investments-with-2c-compatible-pathways/

  144. Norad, 2014. Real-Time Evaluation of Norway’s International Climate and Forest Initiative. Synthesising Report 2007–2013. Norad, Oslo. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/derec/norway/Real-Time-Evaluation-of-Norway-International-Climate-and-Forest-Initiative-Synthesising-Report-2007-2013.pdf

  145. Liebreich, M., 2015. State of the Industry Keynote. Presented at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Annual Summit, New York, 14 April. Available at: http://about.bnef.com/presentations/liebreich-state-industry-keynote/. See also: Randall, T., 2015. Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables. Bloomberg, 14 April. Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-race-against-renewables.

  146. Climate Bonds Initiative, 2014. History: Explosive growth in green bonds market. Available at: http://www.climatebonds.net/market/history.

  147. IEA, 2014. World Energy Outlook 2014. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2014.

  148. IEA, n.d. World energy outlook, Modern energy for all. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energydevelopment. [Accessed 19 June 2015]

  149. WHO, 2014. 7 million premature deaths annually linked to air pollution. 25 March. World Health Organization. Available at: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/.

  150. See, e.g., Klevnäs, P., Stern, N. and Frejova, J., 2015. Oil Prices and the New Climate Economy. New Climate Economy briefing paper. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate and Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015/misc/working-papers/.

  151. IEA, 2014. World Energy Outlook 2014. Paris. Available at: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2014.

    New Climate Economy, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate: New Climate Economy Report. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015.

  152. IEA, 2014. World Energy Investment Outlook: Special Report. Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEIO2014.pdf.

  153. IEA, 2014. World Energy Investment Outlook. International Energy Agency, Paris. Investment targets for 2030 were estimated based on current investment levels and IEA’s estimate of total investment needs over the period 2014–2035.

  154. The IEA uses a slightly different definition of clean energy investment, including transport energy efficiency and biofuels. With this definition, clean energy investments in the IEA’s 450 Scenario are US$0.9 trillion in 2020 and US$1.8 trillion in 2030. See: IEA, 2014. World Energy Outlook 2014 (p.93).

  155. See: IRENA, 2015. Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Available at: http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=494.

    For a detailed discussion, see also Klevnäs et al., 2015. Oil Prices and the New Climate Economy, and Chapter 4 of Better Growth, Better Climate.

  156. McCrone, A., Moslener, U., Usher, E., Grüning, C. and Sonntag-O’Brien, V. (eds.), 2015. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015. Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance, United Nations Environment Programme, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2015.

  157. Smith, N., 2015. Clean Energy Revolution is Ahead of Schedule. Bloomberg View, 8 April. Available at: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-08/clean-energy-revolution-is-way-ahead-of-schedule.

  158. Alliance for Rural Electrification, 2013. Using Batteries to Ensure Clean, Reliable and Affordable Universal Electricity Access: A Guide for Energy Decision-makers. Available at: http://www.ruralelec.org/fileadmin/DATA/Documents/06_Publications/Position_papers/2013-06-11_ARE_Energy_Storage_Position_Paper_2013_FINAL.pdf.

  159. Natural gas can provide substantial air quality and GHG benefits when replacing coal in the power sector, but is still a fossil fuel with significant risk of locking in long-term carbon emissions. For a detailed discussion, see: Lazarus, M., Tempest, K., Klevnäs, P. and Korsbakken, J. I., 2015. Natural Gas: Guardrails for a Potential Climate Bridge. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm and Seattle, WA, US. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015/misc/working-papers/.

  160. McCrone et al., 2015. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015.

  161. For examples of supportive measures in the domestic arena, see: OECD, 2015. Policy Guidance for Investment in Clean Energy Infrastructure: Expanding Access to Clean Energy for Green Growth and Development. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264212664-en.

    OECD, 2015. Overcoming Barriers to International Investment in Clean Energy, Green Finance and Investment. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264227064-en.

  162. Nelson, D., 2014. Roadmap to a Low Carbon Electricity System in the U.S. and Europe. Climate Policy Initiative, London. Available at: http://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/roadmap-to-a-low-carbon-electricity-system-in-the-u-s-and-europe/.

  163. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report. The Global Report. Washington, DC. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015.

  164. YieldCos are publicly traded companies paying dividends to shareholders from portfolios of owned renewable energy projects. For a detailed discussions, see Nelson, D., 2014. Roadmap to a Low Carbon Electricity System in the U.S. and Europe.

  165. Climate Bonds Initiative, 2014. History: Exploding Growth in Green Bonds Market. Available at: http://www.climatebonds.net/market/history.

    Berger, L., 2014. What You Need to Know About How Clean Energy YieldCos Work. Greentech Media, 10 July. Available at: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/what-you-need-to-know-about-how-yieldcos-for-clean-energy-work.

  166. See IMF, 2015. From Billions to Trillions: Mobilising Development Finance. International Monetary Fund. Press release, April 2015. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15170.htm

    See also World Bank. Financing the post-2015 Development Agenda. April 2015. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/mdgs/post2015.html

  167. CPI, 2014. The Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2014. Climate Policy Initiative, San Francisco. Available at: http://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2014/. Note that this total includes funding for adaptation, transport, and other climate-related investments not within the scope of this section.

  168. Multilateral Development Banks, 2013. Joint Report on MDB Climate Finance 2013. Available at: http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Joint_Report_on_MDB_Climate_Finance_2013_-_16_09_2014.pdf.

  169. BNEF, 2013. Development Banks: Breaking the US$100 billion a year barrier. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, New York. Available at: http://about.bnef.com/white-papers/development-banks-breaking-the-100bn-a-year-barrier/.

  170. Morris, S. and Gleave, M., 2015. The World Bank at 75. CGD Policy Paper 058. Center for Global Development, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.cgdev.org/publication/world-bank-75.

  171. Humphrey, C., forthcoming. Challenges and Opportunities for Multilateral Development Banks in 21st Century Infrastructure Finance, (Forthcoming). Global Green Growth Institute and G24 special paper series on infrastructure finance and development. Global Green Growth Institute, Seoul.

  172. For an estimate of global infrastructure investment needs, see McKinsey Global Institute, 2013. Infrastructure Productivity: How to Save $1 Trillion a Year. McKinsey & Company. Available at: file:///C:/Users/Michael/Downloads/MGI_Infrastructure_Full_report_Jan2013.pdf

  173. IDFC, 2015. Development Banks Adopt Common Standards to Move Climate Finance Forward. Press release, 31 March. International Development Finance Club, Paris. Available at: https://www.idfc.org/Downloads/Press/02_general/Press_Release_Conclusion_IDFC%20Climate_EN.pdf.

  174. See: http://climatefinancelab.org.

  175. Varadarajan, U., Nelson, D., Pierpont, B. and Hervé-Mignucci, M., 2011. The Impacts of Policy on the Financing of Renewable Projects: A Case Study Analysis. Climate Policy Initiative, San Francisco, CA. Available at: http://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-impacts-of-policy-on-the-financing-of-renewable-projects-a-case-study-analysis/.

    See also UNDP, 2015. Derisking Renewable Energy Investment. United Nations Development Programme. Available at: http://www.undp.org/drei.

  176. Hogarth, J.R. and Granoff, I., 2015. Speaking Truth to Power: Why Energy Distribution, More than Generation, is Africa’s Poverty Reduction Challenge, Overseas Development Institute, London. Available at: http://www.odi.org/publications/9406-truth-power-energy-poverty-ambition-Africa.

  177. See: UNEP, 2015. Increasing Private Capital Investment into Energy Access: The Case for Mini-Grid Pooling Facilities. United Nations Development Programme, Nairobi. Available at: http://apps.unep.org/publications/index.php?option=com_pub&task=download&file=011541_en.

  178. Africa Progress Panel, 2015. Power, People, Planet: Seizing Africa’s Energy and Climate Opportunities. Africa Progress Report 2015. Geneva. Available at: http://app-cdn.acwupload.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/APP_REPORT_2015_FINAL_low1.pdf.

  179. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report. The Global Report. Washington, DC. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015.

  180. See, e.g., IEA, 2014. Energy Efficiency Market Report 2014 – Market Trends and Medium-Term Prospects. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/bookshop/463-Energy_Efficiency_Market_Report_2014.

  181. Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency, n.d. Resources. Available at: http://www.energyefficiencycentre.org/Resources. [accessed 5 June 2015].

  182. G20, 2014. G20 Energy Efficiency Action Plan: Voluntary Collaboration on Energy Efficiency. Available at: https://g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/g20_energy_efficiency_action_plan.pdf.

  183. Analysis based on data from: OICA, n.d. Production Statistics. Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles. Available at: http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/. [accessed 22 May 2015].

  184. IEA, 2014. Capturing the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/bookshop/475-Capturing_the_Multiple_Benefits_of_Energy_Efficiency. The figures here are based on a net present value calculation.

  185. IEA, 2014. Capturing the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency.

  186. IEA, 2013. Energy Efficiency Market Report 2013 – Market Trends and Medium-Term Prospects. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/energy-efficiency-market-report-2013.html.

  187. Klevnäs, P., Stern, N. and Frejova, J. 2015. Oil Prices and the New Climate Economy. New Climate Economy briefing paper. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate and Stockholm Environment Institute, Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015/misc/working-papers/.

  188. IEA, 2014. World Energy Outlook 2014. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2014/.

  189. IEA, 2015. Energy Technology Perspectives 2015: Mobilising Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/energy_tech-2015-en.

  190. IEA, 2015. Energy Technology Perspectives 2015.

  191. IEA, 2014. Capturing the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency.

  192. IEA, 2011. 25 Energy Efficiency Policy Recommendations – 2011 Update. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/25-energy-efficiency-policy-recommendations—2011-update.html.

  193. A global assessment of energy productivity found the top-performing countries were Hong Kong, Colombia and Singapore. See: Ecofys, 2015. The 2015 Energy Productivity and Economic Prosperity Index. How Efficiency Will Drive Growth, Create Jobs and Spread Wellbeing Throughout Society. Available at: http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/the-2015-energy-productivity-and-economic-prosperity-index.pdf.

  194. There is a particularly strong case for convergence around testing and measurement standards, in order to minimise the regulatory burden on businesses in meeting differing requirements in different jurisdictions.

  195. See: https://www.energystar.gov.

  196. Kimuna, O., 2009. Japanese Top Runner Approach for Energy Efficiency Standards, SERC Discussion Paper 09035. Available at: http://criepi.denken.or.jp/jp/serc/discussion/09035.html.

  197. The World Bank, 2011. Energy Efficiency: Lessons Learned from Success Stories. Washington, DC. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/12236.

  198. This excludes standards in electricity production where further savings are possible. For example, the UK has implemented standards on electricity production to improve efficiency.

  199. There are no carbon pricing schemes in place with rules that automatically increase the carbon price over time.

  200. To be fully effective, a carbon price needs to be part of a well-aligned and integrated package of policies for market failures that hold back low-carbon investment and change.

    See: OECD, 2015. Aligning Policies for a Low-Carbon Economy. Produced in cooperation with the International Energy Agency, International Transport Forum, and Nuclear Energy Agency. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264233294-en.

    Also see: Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report. The Global Report. Washington, DC. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015.

  201. The World Bank, 2015. Carbon Pricing Watch 2015: An advance brief from the State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015 report, to be released late 2015. Washington, DC. Available at: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/05/24528977/carbon-pricing-watch-2015-advance-brief-state-trends-carbon-pricing-2015-report-released-late-2015.

  202. For a survey and analysis of the structure and level of energy taxes in OECD and selected other countries, see: OECD, 2015. Taxing Energy Use 2015: OECD and Selected Partner Economies. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264232334-en.

  203. The World Bank, 2015. Carbon Pricing Watch 2015.

  204. For example, see the 29 May 2015 letter to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat and the COP21 Presidency: http://s08.static-shell.com/content/dam/shell-new/local/corporate/corporate/downloads/pdf/media/speeches/2015/letter-to-unfccc.pdf.

  205. Support for carbon pricing is being expressed publicly in a variety of ways. Ahead of the UN Climate Summit in September 2014, 73 countries, 22 sub-national jurisdictions and more than 1,000 companies and investors expressed their support for a price on carbon. See: The World Bank, 2014. 73 Countries and Over 1,000 Businesses Speak Out in Support of a Price on Carbon. 22 September. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/09/22/governments-businesses-support-carbon-pricing. In addition, more than 360 investors, representing over US$24 trillion in assets, called on governments to commit to “provide stable, reliable and economically meaningful carbon pricing that helps redirect investment commensurate with the scale of the climate change challenge”. See: Global Investor Statement on Climate Change, 2014. Available at: http://investorsonclimatechange.org/.

  206. Business & Climate Summit 2015. Business & Climate Summit conclusions: towards a low-carbon society. Press release, 21 May. Paris. Available at: http://www.businessclimatesummit.com/press-room/

  207. CDP, 2014. Global Corporate Use of Carbon Pricing: Disclosures to Investors. New York. Available at: https://www.cdp.net/CDPResults/global-price-on-carbon-report-2014.pdf.

  208. CDP, 2014. Global Corporate Use of Carbon Pricing: Disclosures to Investors.

  209. See Part II, Enabling a low-carbon transition: prices and more, in: Fay, M., Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Rozenberg, J., Narloch, U., and Kerr, T., 2015. Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future. The World Bank, Washington, DC. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21842.

  210. European Commission, n.d. Auctioning. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/cap/auctioning/index_en.htm. [Accessed 15 June 2015].

  211. Fairfield, N., 2014. Best of Both Worlds? Northeast Cut Emissions and Enjoyed Growth. The New York Times. 6 June. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/06/upshot/best-of-both-worlds-northeast-cut-emissions-and-enjoyed-growth.html. 

  212. Elgie, S. and McClay, J., 2013. BC’s carbon tax shift is working well after four years. Canadian Public Policy, 39 (Supplement 2). 1–10. DOI:10.3138/CPP.39.Supplement2.S1.

  213. IEA, 2014, World Energy Outlook 2014.

  214. This is the estimated range for 2005–2011. See: OECD, 2013. Inventory of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures for Fossil Fuels 2013. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264187610-en.

  215. Clements, B.J., Coady, D., Fabrizio, S., Gupta, S., and Serge, T., 2013. Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.elibrary.imf.org/page/energysubsidylessons.

  216. The World Bank, 2014. Transitional Policies to Assist the Poor While Phasing Out Inefficient Fossil Fuel Subsidies that Encourage Wasteful Consumption. Contribution by the World Bank to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, September. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/site/tadffss/reports-to-g20-fossil-fuel-subsidies.htm.

  217. Lower oil prices have led to stronger calls from industry to increase fossil fuel production subsidies, e.g. in the UK.

  218. Klevnäs, P., Stern, N., and Frejova, J., 2015. Oil Prices and the New Climate Economy. New Climate Economy briefing paper. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate and Stockholm Environment Institute. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015/misc/working-papers/.

  219. See: G20, 2013. G20 Leaders’ Declaration. St. Petersburg, Russia, September. Available at: https://g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Saint_Petersburg_Declaration_ENG_0.pdf.

    See also: G20, 2014. G20 Leaders’ Communiqué. Brisbane, Australia, 15–16 November. Available at: https://g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/brisbane_g20_leaders_summit_communique.pdf.

  220. See: http://www.carbonpricingleadership.org.

  221. See: http://www.thepmr.org/content/supporting-action-climate-change-mitigation. [Accessed 15 June 2015].

  222.  See, e.g.: Holeywell, R., 2013. Houston: The Surprising Contender in America’s Urban Revival. Governing, October. Available at: http://www.governing.com/topics/urban/gov-houston-urban-revival.html.

    Revkin, A. C., 2015. In Texas, the Race to Build in Harm’s Way Outpaces Flood-Risk Studies and Warming Impacts. The New York Times, 26 May. Dot Earth. Available at: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com//2015/05/26/in-texas-the-race-to-develop-in-harms-way-outpaces-flood-risk-studies-and-warming-impacts/.

    Egan, T., 2014. A Mudslide, Foretold. The New York Times, 29 March. Sunday Review. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/opinion/sunday/egan-at-home-when-the-earth-moves.html.

  223.  See, e.g.: ASCE, 2013. 2013 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. American Society of Civil Engineers. Available at: http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/.Llana, S. M., 2015. In precision-driven Germany, crumbling bridges and aging roads. Christian Science Monitor, 12 March. Available at: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/0312/In-precision-driven-Germany-crumbling-bridges-and-aging-roads.

  224.  Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate. See Synthesis Report or, for a more detailed discussion, Chapter 6.

  225.  See: G20, 2014. The G20 Global Infrastructure Initiative. Note prepared by the Australian Presidency. Available at: http://www.g20australia.org/sites/default/files/g20_resources/library/g20_note_global_infrastructure_initiative_hub.pdf.

  226.  See: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/publicprivatepartnerships/brief/global-infrastructure-facility.

  227.  See: http://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/initiatives-partnerships/africa50-infrastructure-fund/background/.

  228.  See: http://www.aiibank.org.

  229.  See: VI Brics Summit, 2014. Agreement on the New Development Bank. Fortaleza, Brazil, 15 July. Available at: http://brics6.itamaraty.gov.br/media2/press-releases/219-agreement-on-the-new-development-bank-fortaleza-july-15.

  230.  Global Commission for the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate. Synthesis Report, Figure 2.

  231.  Humphrey, C., 2014. Challenges and Opportunities for Multilateral Development Banks in 21st Century Infrastructure Finance. MARGGK Working Paper 8.

  232.  See https://www.idfc.org/Downloads/Press/02_general/Press_Release_Conclusion_IDFC%20Climate_EN.pdf.

  233.  G20 Australia, 2014. Report to the Finance Ministers. G20 Climate Finance Study Group, September. Available at: http://www.g20australia.org/sites/default/files/g20_resources/library/g20_climate_finance_study_group.pdf.

  234.  See, for example, the Focusing Capital on the Long-Term initiative led by McKinsey & Company: http://www.fclt.org.

  235.  OECD, IEA, ITF and NEA, 2015. Aligning Policies for a Low-Carbon Economy. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, International Energy Agency, Nuclear Energy Agency, and International Transport Forum, Paris. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/environment/aligning-policies-for-a-low-carbon-economy-9789264233294-en.htm.

  236.  Varma, A., Whitely, S., Schmid, S., Le-Cornu, E., Dodwell, C., Holdaway, E., Agster, R., Steinbach, D. and Caravani, A., 2013. European and International Financial Institutions: Climate related standards and measures for assessing investments in infrastructure projects. Prepared for the European Commission – DG Climate Action, by Ricardo-AEA, Adelphi and the Overseas Development Institute. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/events/docs/0072/study_standards_mesures_en.pdf.

    Cochran, I., Eschalier, C. and Deheza, M., 2015. Mainstreaming Low-Carbon Climate-Resilient Growth Pathways into Investment Decision-Making – Lessons from Development Financial Institutions on Approaches and Tools. The Association pour la promotion de la recherché sur l’économie du climate (APREC), Caisse de Dépôts (CDC) and Agence Française de Développement (AFD).

    Höhne, N., Bals, C., Röser, F., Weischer, L., Hagemann, M., El Alaoui, A., Eckstein, D., Thomä, J. and Rossé, M., 2015. Developing Criteria to Align Investments with 2°C Compatible Pathways. Prepared for the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA). NewClimate Institute, Germanwatch and 2° Investing Initiative. Available at: http://newclimate.org/2015/06/09/developing-criteria-to-align-investments-with-2c-compatible-pathways/.

  237.  This framework was developed by Cochran et al., 2015. Mainstreaming Low-Carbon Climate-Resilient Growth Pathways into Investment Decision-Making.

  238. See, e.g., OECD, 2010. The OECD Innovation Strategy: Getting a Head Start on Tomorrow. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/sti/inno/theoecdinnovationstrategygettingaheadstartontomorrow.htm.

  239. See Global Commission for the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate, Chapter 7.

  240. Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2012. Towards a Circular Economy. Vol. 1. Cowes, Isle of Wight, UK. Available at: http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/business/reports/ce2012.

  241. See: http://www.us-china-cerc.org.

  242. See: http://lctpi.wbcsdservers.org.

  243. IEA, 2015. Participation of governments, private sector, international organisations and non-governmental organisations in IEA energy technology initiatives. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/media/impag/CurrentparticipantsinallIAs.pdf.

  244. See: http://www.cgiar.org/press-releases/cgiar-doubles-funding-to-1-billion-in-five-years/.

  245. IEA, 2015. IEA Energy Technology RD&D Statistics. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://wds.iea.org/WDS/ReportFolders/ReportFolders.aspx.

  246. See Global Commission for the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate, Chapter 7, Figure 4.

  247. Rhodes, A., Skea, J. and Hannon, M., 2014. The Global Surge in Energy Innovation. Energies, 7(9), 5601–5623. DOI:10.3390/en7095601.

  248. Beintema, N., Stads, G.-J., Fuglie, K. and Heisey, P., 2012. ASTI Global Assessment of Agricultural R&D Spending. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, and Global Forum on Agricultural Research, Rome. Available at: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/asti-global-assessmentagricultural-rd-spending.

  249. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate, Chapter 7.

  250. OECD, 2014. Measuring Environmental Innovation Using Patent Data: Policy Relevance. Environment Policy Committee, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=ENV/EPOC/WPEI%282014%296/FINAL&docLanguage=En.

  251. McCrone, A., Moslener, U., Usher, E., Grüning, C. and Sonntag-O’Brien, V. (eds.), 2015. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015. Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance, United Nations Environment Programme, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2015.

  252. Hultman, N., Sierra, K., Eis, J. and Shapiro, A., 2012. Green Growth Innovation: New Pathways for International Cooperation. Brookings Institution, Washington DC. Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2012/11/green-growth-innovation.

  253. IEA, 2015. Energy Technology Perspectives 2015: Mobilising Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/energy_tech-2015-en. See Part 1, Chapter 2: Tracking clean energy progress.

  254. IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. In Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at: http://mitigation2014.org/.

  255. IEA, 2015. Energy Technology Perspectives 2015.

  256. IEA, 2015. Energy Technology Perspectives 2015.

  257. IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change.

  258. IEA, 2015. Energy Technology Perspectives 2015.

  259. See: http://www.infodev.org/climate.

  260. Treating the EU as a single “home country”.

  261. OECD, 2014. Main Science and Technology Indicators Volume 2014 Issue 2. OECD Publishing, Paris. Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/main-science-and-technology-indicators/volume-2014/issue-2_msti-v2014-2-en.

  262. National Science Board, 2014. Science and Engineering Indicators 2014. National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Available at: http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind14/content/etc/nsb1401.pdf.

  263. These and similar approaches are discussed in the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. Chapter 7: Innovation. See also The World Bank, 2008. Global Economic Prospects 2008. Technology Diffusion in the Developing World. Washington DC.

  264. King, D. et al. 2015. A Global Apollo Program to Combat Climate Change. Available at: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/special/Global_Apollo_Programme_Report.pdf

  265. These are the top 500 companies by market capitalisation. See: Thomson Reuters, 2014. Global 500 Greenhouse Gases Performance 2010–2013: 2014 Report on Trends. Available at: http://site.thomsonreuters.com/corporate/pdf/global-500-greenhouse-gases-performance-trends-2010-2013.pdf 

  266. Business & Climate Summit, 2015. Conclusions: towards a low-carbon society. Press release. Available at: http://www.businessclimatesummit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Business-Climate-Summit-Press-release.pdf

  267. UK Department for Business, Innovation & Skills, 2013. Low Carbon Environmental Goods and Services (LCEGS): Report for 2011/12. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/224068/bis-13-p143-low-carbon-and-environmental-goods-and-services-report-2011-12.pdf 

  268. See, for example, the Cement Sustainability Initiative: http://www.wbcsdcement.org/index.php/en/key-issues/emissions-reduction.

    Also the World Steel Association: http://www.worldsteel.org/publications/position-papers/Steel-s-contribution-to-a-low-carbon-future.html.

    European Climate Foundation, 2014. Europe’s Low Carbon Transition: Understanding the Challenges and Opportunities for the Chemical Sector. Available at: http://europeanclimate.org/europes-low-carbon-transition-understanding-the-chemicals-sector/.

  269. CDP (formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project) holds the world’s largest repository of publicly available environmental data and performance information from companies, cities and other emitting entities, gathered on behalf of 822 institutional investors, representing US$95 trillion of assets. CDP data is collected from companies, cities and others in over 80 countries.

  270. CDP, 2015 (forthcoming). CDP Policy Briefing: Corporate Ambition and Action on Climate Change. Report prepared for the New Climate Economy. To be available at: http://www.cdp.net.

  271. EEA, 2014. Annual European Union Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2012 and Inventory Report 2014. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen. Available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu//publications/european-union-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2014. See Table ES.3, which shows France’s emissions in 2012 were 490.1 Mt CO2e, and the Netherlands’ were 191.7 Mt CO2e.

  272. Ceres, 2014. Power Forward 2.0: How American Companies Are Setting Clean Energy Targets and Capturing Greater Business Value. Available at: http://www.ceres.org/resources/reports/power-forward-2.0-how-american-companies-are-setting-clean-energy-targets-and-capturing-greater-business-value/view.

  273. For example, the average IRR for low-carbon energy installations was 6% in the EU, where it was the most common project type, 12% in the US, 10% in South Africa, and 20% in India. Measures to improve energy efficiency in industrial processes, meanwhile, had an average IRR of 19% in the EU, 81% in the US, 46% in South Africa, and 7% in India. Energy efficiency in buildings had negative returns in the EU and South Africa, -21% and -7%, respectively, but positive returns in the US and India, averaging 13%.

    See: We Mean Business, 2014. The Climate Has Changed: Why Bold, Low Carbon Action Makes Good Business Sense. Report prepared by CDP. Available at: https://www.cdp.net/Documents/we-mean-business-the-climate-has-changed.pdf.

  274. Ambec, S. and Lanoie, P., 2008. Does It Pay to Be Green? A Systematic Overview. The Academy of Management Perspectives, 22(4). 45–62. DOI:10.5465/AMP.2008.35590353.

    Khan, M., Srafeim, G., and Yoon, A., 2015. Corporate Sustainability: First Evidence on Materiality. HBS Working Paper 15-073. Harvard Business School, Cambridge, MA, US. Available at: http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/7755.html.

  275. CDP, 2014. The A List: The CDP Climate Leadership Performance Index 2014. Available at: https://www.cdp.net/CDPResults/CDP-climate-performance-leadership-index-2014.pdf. Note that comparing the CDP index against a mainstream index entails differences in index size, sector weighting and regional allocation. This comparison has not been risk-weighted to capture these factors.

  276. CDP, 2014. The A List (see p.14). The CDP Climate Leadership Index includes 187 major companies from around the world in 12 different sectors taking the strongest action on climate change.

  277. Global Investor Coalition on Climate Change, 2013. Global Investor Survey on Climate Change: 3rd annual report on actions and progress. Available at: http://www.ceres.org/resources/reports/global-investor-survey-on-climate-change-2013/view.

  278. CDP, 2015 (forthcoming). CDP Policy Briefing: Corporate Ambition and Action on Climate Change.

  279. BP, 2015. Shareholder resolution. Available at: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/annual-general-meeting/notice-of-meeting/shareholder-resolution.html. [Accessed 23 April 2015.]

  280. Carbon Trust, 2015. Titans or Titanics? Understanding the business response to climate change and resource scarcity. Carbon Trust. London. Available at: http://www.carbontrust.com/resources/reports/advice/titans-or-titanics.

  281. Only 70% of the companies reporting to CDP’s climate change program in 2014 had set either an intensity or an absolute target with almost 400 companies setting both.The CDP sample of 2,345 responding companies, including 83% of the Global 500. See: CDP, 2015 (forthcoming). CDP Policy Briefing: Corporate Ambition and Action on Climate Change.

  282. We Mean Business, 2014. The Climate Has Changed.

  283. A recent analysis, based on data disclosed to CDP, notes that “No fewer than 81% of the world’s 500 largest companies reported in 2014 as having emission reduction or energy-specific targets”, but “most of those targets are not of a magnitude to meet the threat posed by climate change. Either they do not cover a meaningful percentage of the organization’s emissions, or they are insufficiently long-term, or they are simply not ambitious enough.”

    See: CDP, 2015. Mind the Science. Report for the We Mean Business coalition, with contributions from WWF, the UN Global Compact and the World Resources Institute. Paris. See figure on p.7 for a detailed breakdown. Available at: https://www.cdp.net/Documents/technical/2015/mind-the-science-report-2015.pdf.

  284. See: http://www.ghgprotocol.org.

  285. CDP, World Resources Institute and WWF, 2015. Sectoral Decarbonization Approach (SDA): A Method for Setting Corporate Emission Reduction Targets in Line with Climate Science. Version 1, May 2015. A product of the Science Based Targets Initiative. Available at: http://sciencebasedtargets.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Sectoral-Decarbonization-Approach-Report.pdf.

    See also the Science Based Targets Initiative website: http://sciencebasedtargets.org.

  286. See: http://there100.org.

  287. Clark, G.L., Feiner, A. and Viehs, M., 2014. From the Stockholder to the Stakeholder: How Sustainability Can Drive Financial Outperformance. University of Oxford, Arabesque Partners. Available at: http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/library/reports/SSEE_Arabesque_Paper_16Sept14.pdf

    See also the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative: http://www.unepfi.org and the Global Sustainable Investment Alliance: http://www.gsi-alliance.org.

  288. See: http://montrealpledge.org.

  289. See: http://unepfi.org/pdc/.

  290. See: http://lctpi.wbcsdservers.org.

  291. See: http://www.tfa2020.com.

  292. See: http://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/business-action/sustainable-finance/banking-environment-initiative/programme/soft-commodities/soft-commodities.

  293. Climate-related initiatives in the oil and gas sector include:

    The Climate Clean Air Coalition Oil & Gas Initiative: http://www.unep.org/ccac/Initiatives/CCACOilGasInitiative/tabid/794015/Default.aspx.

    The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative: http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/07/INDUSTRY-oil-and-gas-climate-initiative_REV.pdf; see also this May 2015 press release: http://www.eni.com/en_IT/media/press-releases/2015/05/OGCI_tackles_improved_emissions_management_and_transition_to_lower_carbon_energy.shtml.

    The World Bank Zero Flaring by 2030: http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/zero-routine-flaring-by-2030.

  294. See: http://www.fclt.org.

  295. See: http://www.climatebonds.net.

  296. See: http://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org. One of the coalition’s activities is to press for businesses to lobby governments in a transparent and accountable manner. See: http://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/content/responsible-corporate-engagement-climate-policy.

    See also: Metzger, E., Dagnet, Y., Putt del Pino, S., Morgan, J., Karbassi, L., Huusko, H., Castellanos Silveira, F., et al., 2013. Guide for Responsible Corporate Engagement in Climate Policy. A Caring for Climate Report UN Global Compact, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, United Nations Environment Programme, World Resources Institute, CDP, WWF, Ceres and The Climate Group. Available at: http://www.wri.org/publication/guide-responsible-corporate-engagement-climate-policy.

  297. UN Climate Summit, 2014. Economic Drivers: Global Investors Action Statement. New York. 23 September. Available at: http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/09/FINANCING-Global-Investors.pdf.

  298. Aviation accounts for approximately 2% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use. See: ICAO, 2013. ICAO Environmental Report 2013: Aviation and Climate Change. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Available at: http://cfapp.icao.int/Environmental-Report-2013/

    Shipping accounts for approximately 3% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use. See: IMO, 2014. Third IMO GHG Study 2014. International Maritime Organization, London. Available at: http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/Greenhouse-Gas-Studies-2014.aspx.

    See also: IEA, 2014. CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion: Highlights 2014. International Energy Agency, Paris. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/co2-emissions-from-fuel-combustion-highlights-2014.html.

    Sims, R., Schaeffer, R., Creutzig, F., Cruz-Núñez, X., D’Agosto, M., et al., 2014. Chapter 8: Transport. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/.

    The IPCC (2014) and IEA (in CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Use 2014) report slightly different percentages. The IPCC includes forestry and land use in its total GHG emissions figure, while the IMO and ICAO do not. The IEA figures only account for international activity, not domestic, and thus are lower than total global emissions from these two sectors. The IMO analysis combines IEA data on fuel use with separate, bottom-up data to arrive at its figures.

    UNEP, 2011. Bridging the Emissions Gap: A UNEP Synthesis Report. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Available at: http://www.unep.org/pdf/UNEP_bridging_gap.pdf. The 10-32% range depends on the emission reductions achieved elsewhere, as well as the growth in emissions from international aviation and shipping.

  299. The share of international activity was 65% in aviation in 2010, and 84% in shipping in 2012.

    See: ICAO, 2013. ICAO Environmental Report 2013: Aviation and Climate Change. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Available at: http://cfapp.icao.int/Environmental-Report-2013/.

    IMO, 2014. Third IMO GHG Study 2014. International Maritime Organization, London. Available at: http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/Greenhouse-Gas-Studies-2014.aspx.

  300. ICCT, 2011. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships. White Paper Number 11. International Council on Clean Transportation. Available at: http://www.theicct.org/reducing-ghg-emissions-ships.

  301. ATAG, 2014. Aviation: Benefits Beyond Borders. Air Transport Action Group, Geneva. Available at: http://aviationbenefits.org/media/26786/ATAG__AviationBenefits2014_FULL_LowRes.pdf. (Data attributed to Oxford Economics.)

  302. IATA, 2015. Fact Sheet: Industry Statistics. Updated June 2015. International Air Transport Association, Montreal. Available at: http://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_figures/fact_sheets/Documents/fact-sheet-industry-facts.pdf.

  303. ATAG, 2014. Aviation: Benefits Beyond Borders.

  304. IPCC, 2014. Kahn Ribeiro, S., S. Kobayashi, M. Beuthe, J. Gasca, D. Greene, D. S. Lee, Y. Muromachi, P. J. Newton, S. Plotkin, D. Sperling, R. Wit, P. J. Zhou, 2007: Transport and its infrastructure. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter5.pdf

    ICAO, 2013. ICAO Environmental Report 2013.

    Moreover, when its non-CO2 impacts are factored-in, it contributes 4.9% of the Earth’s warming effect. Source: WWF and Vivid Economics, 2012. Aviation Report: Market Based Mechanisms to Curb Greenhouse Gas Emissions from International Aviation. Available at: http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/aviation_main_report_web_simple.pdf.

  305. ICAO, 2013. ICAO Environmental Report 2013.

  306. ICAO, 2013. ICAO Environmental Report 2013.

  307. Jardine, C.N., 2013. A Methodology for Offsetting Aviation Emissions. The Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. Available at: http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/aviation-climatecare.pdf.

  308. European Commission, 2013. Evaluation of Directive 2009/12/EC on airport charges. Final Report. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/studies/doc/airports/2013-09-evaluation-of-directive-2009-12-ec-on-airport-charges.pdf.

    See also: IETA and EDF, 2013. Norway, The World’s Carbon Markets: A Case Study Guide to Emissions Trading. Updated May 2013. International Emissions Trading Association and Environmental Defense Fund. Available at: http://www.ieta.org/assets/Reports/EmissionsTradingAroundTheWorld/edf_ieta_norway_case_study_may_2013.pdf.

    Keen, M., Parry, I., and Strand, J., 2013. Planes, Ships, and Taxes: Charging for International Aviation and Maritime Emissions. Economic Policy, 28(76). 701-749. DOI: 10.1111/1468-0327.12019.

  309. United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), 2015. Proposed Finding that Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Aircraft Cause or Contribute to Air Pollution that May Reasonably Be Anticipated to Endanger Public Health and Welfare and Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking. EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0828. Available at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/documents/aviation/aircraft-ghg-pr-anprm-2015-06-10.pdf.

  310. European Union, 2009. Directive 2008/101/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council. Official Journal of the European Union. Available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32008L0101&from=EN.

  311. Keen, M., Parry, I., and Strand, J., 2013. Planes, Ships, and Taxes: Charging for International Aviation and Maritime Emissions. Economic Policy, 28(76). 701-749. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0327.12019.

  312. Fuel costs’ share in 2014 and 2015 is projected to be lower, 26–28%, due to lower oil prices. See: IATA, 2014b. Fuel Fact Sheet, last updated December 2014. Available at: http://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_figures/fact_sheets/documents/fuel-fact-sheet.pdf.

  313. ICCT, 2014a. U.S. Domestic Airline Fuel Efficiency Ranking, 2013. White paper. ICCT, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_USairline-ranking_2013.pdf.

  314. Karp, G., 2014. “Winglets go a long way to give airlines fuel savings.” Chicago Tribune. 4 March. Available at: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014-03-04/business/ct-airline-winglets-0302-biz-20140304_1_fuel-savings-jet-fuel-southwest-airlines.

  315. European Federation for Transport and Environment, 2010. Grounded: How ICAO failed to tackle aviation and climate change and what should happen now. Available at: http://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/media/2010_09_icao_grounded.pdf.

    The report states: “According to the provisions of Article 2.2 [of the Kyoto Protocol]: ‘Parties included in Annex I shall pursue limitation or reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases…from aviation and marine bunker fuels, working through the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization, respectively’. Unlike other sectors, responsibility for cutting international aviation emissions was not given to individual countries (parties). Instead reductions should be achieved by Annex 1 Parties working through international bodies that regulate these modes of transport – ICAO for aviation and IMO for maritime transport.”

  316. European Federation for Transport and Environment, 2010. Grounded: How ICAO failed to tackle aviation and climate change and what should happen now.

    Bows-Larkin, A., 2014. All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy. Climate Policy. DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.965125. This analysis treats international aviation as an average country to create an emissions pathway that would meet 2°C, then compares it to projected emissions from international aviation.

  317. UN Climate Summit, 2014. Transport Aviation Action Plan. Available at: http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/09/TRANSPORT-Aviation-Action-plan.pdf.

  318. ICCT, 2014. Could ICAO’s CO2 Standard Not Actually Cover Any Aircraft? Yes, If Nobody’s Watching. 9 December. Available at: http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/could-icaos-co2-standard-not-cover-any-aircraft.

  319. ICAO, 2013. ICAO Environmental Report 2013: Aviation and Climate Change.

  320. ICAO, 2013. 38th ICAO Assembly meeting press release.

  321. ICAO, 2013. Report on the Assessment of Market-based Measures, 2013, p.2-1. Available at: http://www.icao.int/Meetings/GLADs-2015/Documents/10018_cons_en.pdf

  322. Hemmings, B., 2013. Global deal or no deal? Your free guide to the ICAO Assembly, Transport and Environment, Available at: http://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/global-deal-or-no-deal-your-free-guide-icao-assembly.

  323. ICAO, 2013. Report of the Assessment of Market-based Measures. ICAO, Montreal. Available at: http://www.icao.int/Meetings/GLADs-2015/Documents/10018_cons_en.pdf.

  324. ICAO, 2013. Report of the Assessment of Market-based Measures.

  325. ICAO, 2013. Report of the Assessment of Market-based Measures.

  326. ICAO, 2013. Report of the Assessment of Market-based Measures.

  327. International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), n.d. Key Facts. Available at: http://www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-facts/key-facts. [Accessed 5 May 2015.]

  328. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 2014. Review of Maritime Transport 2014. Geneva. Available at: http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/rmt2014_en.pdf.

  329. For the 2012 figures, see: IMO, 2014. Third IMO GHG Study 2014. 

    For the 1996 figures, see: IMO, 2000. Study of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships. Issue 2. March. Available at: http://cleantech.cnss.no/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/2000-IMO-Study-of-Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-from-Ships.pdf.

    Total CO2 emissions for 2012 are estimated at 34.5 Gt. See: Olivier, J. G. J., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Muntean, M. and Peters, J. A. H. W., 2013. Trends in Global CO2 Emissions: 2013 Report. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague. Available at: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/trends-in-global-co2-emissions-2013-report48.pdf.

  330. IMO, 2014. Third IMO GHG Study 2014.

  331. ICCT, 2014c. Another Look Into the Crystal Ball. 14 March. Available at: http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/another-look-crystal-ball-imo.

  332. According to the IMO (2014), Third IMO GHG Study, an additional 15 MtCO2e come from refrigerant and air conditioning gases on ships.

  333. IMO, 2014. Third IMO GHG Study 2014. The discrepancy is due to different estimation methods (top-down vs. bottom-up).

  334. The remainder is marine diesel oil (MDO), with marginal usage of liquefied natural gas (LNG). See: IMO, 2014. Third IMO GHG Study 2014.

  335. IMO, 2015. The Existing Shipping Fleet’s CO2 Efficiency. London.ICCT, 2013. Long-term Potential for Increased Shipping Efficiency through the Adoption of Industry-Leading Practices. White paper. ICCT, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_ShipEfficiency_20130723.pdf.

  336. Smith, T., O’Keeffe, E., Aldous, L. and Agnolucci, P., 2013. Assessment of Shipping’s Efficiency Using Satellite AIS data. UCL Energy Institute. Available at: http://lowcarbonshipping.co.uk/files/ucl_admin/Smith_et_al__2013_World_fleet_efficiency.pdf.

  337. Smith, T., O’Keeffe, E., Aldous, L. and Agnolucci, P., 2013. Assessment of Shipping’s Efficiency Using Satellite AIS data. UCL Energy Institute. Available at: http://lowcarbonshipping.co.uk/files/ucl_admin/Smith_et_al__2013_World_fleet_efficiency.pdf.

  338. Seas at Risk, 2010. Going Slow to Reduce Emissions. Available at: http://www.seas-at-risk.org/images/pdf/GoingSlowToReduceEmissions_1.pdf.

  339. Smith et al., 2013. Assessment of Shipping’s Efficiency Using Satellite AIS data.

  340. Faber, J. and ‘t Hoen, M., 2015. Historical trends in ship design efficiency. CE Delft, Delft. Available at: http://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/study-historical-trends-ship-design-efficiency.

  341. Actual efficiency gains can vary significantly based on ship type and operating conditions, and independent testing in realistic conditions is relatively rare. Savings and payback periods also fluctuate with the price of fuel.

  342. ICCT, 2013. Long-term Potential for Increased Shipping Efficiency through the Adoption of Industry-Leading Practices.

  343. Corbett, J.J., Winebrake, J.J., Comer, B., Green, E., 2011. Energy and GHG Emissions Savings Analysis of Fluoropolymer Foul Release Hull Coating. Energy and Environmental Research Associates, LLC. Available at: http://www.theengineer.co.uk/Journals/1/Files/2011/2/21/20110215b%20International%20Paint%20Report.pdf.

    The incremental cost above traditional coatings is only US$180,000, which would make the payback period even shorter.

  344. Stulgis, V., et al., 2014. Hidden Treasure: Financial Models for Retrofits. Carbon War Room, Washington. Available at: http://lowcarbonshipping.co.uk/files/ucl_admin/CWR_Shipping_Efficiency_Finance_Report.pdf.

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    Maddox Consulting, 2012. Analysis of market barriers to cost effective GHG emission reductions in the maritime transport sector. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/shipping/docs/market_barriers_2012_en.pdf.

  345. Carbon War Room and RightShip, n.d. Shipping Efficiency. Available at: http://www.shippingefficiency.org/. [Accessed 4 June 2015.]

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  348. IMO, 2010. Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships Engaged in International Trade. Position Note. Available at: http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/COP%2016%20Submissions/IMO%20note%20COP%2016.pdf.

  349. The EEDI applies to the majority of new ships, but not all. Ships with less than 400 gross tonnage are also exempt. The ships covered by the EEDI represent approximately 85% of the CO2 emissions from international shipping. For more information, see: IMO, n.d. Energy Efficiency Measures. Available at: http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/Technical-and-Operational-Measures.aspx.

  350. Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organization, 2012. 2012 Guidelines for the Development of a Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP). Annex 9, Resolution MEPC.213(63). Available at: http://www.imo.org/KnowledgeCentre/IndexofIMOResolutions/Documents/MEPC%20-%20Marine%20Environment%20Protection/213%2863%29.pdf.

  351. Bazari and Longva, 2011. Assessment of IMO Mandated Energy Efficiency Measures for International Shipping.

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  352. IMO, 2014. Third IMO GHG Study 2014.

  353. Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), 2015. Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships: Setting a reduction target and agreeing associated measures for international shipping. MEPC 68/5/1. Available at: http://www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk/files/Ben_Howett/MEPC_68-5-1_-_Setting_a_reduction_target_and_agreeing_associated_measures_for_international_shipping_28Marshall_Islands29.pdf.

  354. See: Velders, G. J. M., Ravishankara, A. R., Miller, M. K., Molina, M. J., Alcamo, J., Daniel, J. S., Fahey, D. W., Montzka, S. A. and Reimann, S., 2012. Preserving Montreal Protocol climate benefits by limiting HFCs. Science, 335. 922–923. DOI:10.1126/science.1216414.

    See also: WMO, 2010. Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project—Report No. 52. World Meteorological Organization. Available at: http://ozone.unep.org/new_site/en/scientific_assessment_2010.php.

  355. Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J. et al., 2013. Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/.

  356. New Climate Economy, 2015. Estimates of Emissions Reduction Potential for the 2015 Report: Technical Note. A technical note for Seizing the Global Opportunity: Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/2015/misc/working-papers.

  357. The Consumer Goods Forum, 2012. The CGF Good Practices About HFC-Free Refrigeration and Energy Efficiency. Available at: http://ausref.org.au/index.php/resources/downloads/category/7-engo-reports?download=17:cgf-refrigeration-progress-report.

  358. Refrigerants, Naturally!, n.d. About Us. Available at: http://www.refrigerantsnaturally.com/about-us [Accessed 29 April 2015].

  359. The numbers given are for HFCs’ 100-year global warming potential (GWP). The average GWP for HFCs currently used as substitutes for ODSs is 1,600, weighted by usage. See: Myhre et al., 2013. Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing.

  360. Velders, G. J. M., Solomon, S. and Daniel, J. S., 2014. Growth of climate change commitments from HFC banks and emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14. 4563–4572. DOI:10.5194/acp-14-4563-2014.

    See also: UNEP, 2011. HFCs: A Critical Link in Protecting Climate and the Ozone Layer. Synthesis Report, United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Available at: http://www.unep.org/publications/contents/pub_details_search.asp?ID=6224.

  361. Meek, K., 2015. Reducing HFCs in the US would benefit consumers and the climate. WRI blog. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, 3 March. Available at: http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/03/reducing-hfcs-us-would-benefit-consumers-and-climate.

  362. Carvalho, S., Andersen, S. O., Brack, D. and Sherman, N. J., 2014. Alternatives to High-GWP Hydrofluorocarbons. Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. Available at: http://www.igsd.org/documents/HFCSharpeningReport.pdf.

  363. See: Hydrocarbons 21, 2013. Heineken’s successful rollout of HC coolers- exclusive interview with Maarten ten Houten. 4 December. Available at: http://www.hydrocarbons21.com/news/viewprintable/4760.

  364. See: The Coca-Cola Company, 2014. Coca-Cola Installs 1 Millionth HFC-Free Cooler Globally, Preventing 5.25MM Metric Tons of CO2. Press release, 22 January. Available at: http://www.coca-colacompany.com/innovation/coca-cola-installs-1-millionth-hfc-free-cooler-globally-preventing-525mm-metrics-tons-of-co2.

  365. UNEP and CCAC, 2014. Low-GWP Alternatives in Commercial Refrigeration: Propane, CO2 and HFO Case Studies. United Nations Environment Programme and Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants, Paris. Available at: http://www.unep.org/ccac/portals/50162/docs/Low-GWP_Alternatives_in_Commercial_Refrigeration-Case_Studies-Final.pdf.

  366. UNEP, 2011. HFCs: A Critical Link in Protecting Climate and the Ozone Layer.

  367. Velders et al., 2012. Preserving Montreal Protocol climate benefits by limiting HFCs.

  368. US EPA, 2013. Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: 2010–2030. Section IV.2.3.3. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/MAC_Report_2013-IV_Industrial.pdf.

  369. Shah, N., Wei, M. and Phadke, A., 2015. Energy Efficiency Benefits in Implementing Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants in Air Conditioning – Some Preliminary Results. Presentation before the Open-Ended Working Group of the Montreal Protocol, Bangkok, Thailand, 23 April 2015. Available at: http://conf.montreal-protocol.org/meeting/oewg/oewg-35/pubs/SitePages/Home.aspx.

  370. Phadke, A., Adhyankar, N. and Shah, N., 2013. Avoiding 100 New Power Plants by Increasing Efficiency of Room Air Conditioners in India: Opportunities and Challenges. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Available at: http://www.superefficient.org/en/Resources/~/media/Files/EEDAL%20Papers%20-%202013/031_Shah_finalpaper_EEDAL13.pdf.

  371. US EPA, 2014. Benefits of Addressing HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. EPA 430-R-14-005. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.epa.gov/ozone/downloads/Benefits_of_Addressing_HFCs_under_the_Montreal_Protocol-July2014MASTER_REV4.pdf.

  372. Velders et al., 2012. Preserving Montreal Protocol climate benefits by limiting HFCs.

  373. The CCAC has developed a guidance note to help countries identify specific actions on HFCs and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) that may be included in their INDCs. See: CCAC, 2015. Guidance Note on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants, Paris. Available at: http://www.ccacoalition.org/docs/pdf/Guidance_note_on_SLCPs_for_INDCs-16march2015.pdf.