Building Electricity Supplies in Africa for Growth and Universal Access

This paper provides population, GDP and carbon emissions estimates up to 2030 for 69 cities across 35 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for which data is available (primarily with populations above 0.5 million based on new top-down analysis commissioned for the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate). Estimates of carbon emissions at the city level are typically unavailable – particularly for sub-Saharan African cities – and to our knowledge this is the first time that these calculations have been attempted. The analysis has been undertaken using the Oxford Economics’ Global Cities 2030 database (covering 750 cities) and other published data.

The costs of fossil fuel subsidies far outweigh the benefits when considering the full economic, social, and environmental impact of these subsidies in sub-Saharan Africa. However, efforts to dismantle fossil fuel subsidies in sub-Saharan Africa are hampered by a lack of transparency, reliance on fossil fuels to support national development strategies, special interest agendas, and weak institutional capacity to communicate and support reform.

Energy demand is projected to grow by a third in the next 15 years. A rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy sources and energy efficiency is essential to drive global growth, reduce the air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) associated with fossil fuel use and help provide reliable access to modern energy for those who lack it. This need has become more urgent following the global commitment made in the UN Paris Agreement in December 2015 to reducing net GHG emissions to zero in the second half of the century.

Cities are growing engines of economic growth and social change. About 85% of global GDP in 2015 was generated in cities. By 2050, two-thirds of the global population will live in urban areas. Compact, connected and efficient cities can generate stronger growth and job creation, alleviate poverty and reduce investment costs, as well as improve quality of life through lower air pollution and traffic congestion.