Estimates of Emissions Reduction Potential for the 2015 Report

New Climate Economy

The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate’s 2015 report Seizing the Global Opportunity: Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate identifies actions in ten key areas which can simultaneously foster economic growth and development and reduce projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It makes recommendations on how international and multi-stakeholder partnerships of various kinds – between national and sub-national governments, businesses, investors, international organisations and civil society – can scale up current efforts in these areas. The report provides estimates that the potential GHG emissions reductions which could be achieved by implementation of its recommendation are between 16-26 Gt CO2e by 2030, 96% of the emissions needed to keep global warming to 2°C.

This technical note sets out the analysis underpinning this estimate. It explains the baseline scenarios from which emissions reductions have been calculated, and the estimate of the emissions ‘required’ for a 2˚C pathway. It explains the methodologies and sources used in each recommendation area to estimate emissions reduction potential, and the uncertainties which generate ranges of possible impact, as well as how the overlaps between the recommendations have been subtracted in order to arrive at the aggregate emissions reduction potential of the recommendations as a whole. It also explains how the report’s calculations relate to the estimates of the emissions gap in the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap reports, and to the aggregation of emissions targets set out in the national climate pledges (‘intended nationally determined contributions’ or INDCs) being brought forward for the UN climate conference in Paris in December 2015.

This note should be read in conjunction with the full Seizing the Global Opportunity report.